I own the 1994 edition of PBJ, apparently, there are differences in what year the book you own was published.
To everyone. It's not just the edition, it's what year your edition was published. Mine is 1994 edition printed 2005. Ive caught Don (twice) making horrendously sloppy errorsOriginally Posted by BoSox
, one if them being this exact issue. His edition apparently didnt have the early late surrender tables around page 92.
This post is here only because this is where I was at. A question of proper gentlemanly conduct.
Here I am at the specialty coffee shop, enjoying my coffee and preferred snack of the month. A young lady standing 10 feet in front of me, ordering a latte, is wearing a pair of dark skin tight leggings. Further, the material around her backside is somewhat worn. It is clear that she is not wearing under wear, and thus, I have a great clear view of her ass.
Do I
Say nothing and enjoy the view
Saunter up to her casually commenting - great ass
As above, but quietly advising of her unique advertising approach.
Approach the situation as an AP.
Which decision is most likely to to produce a response favorable to you? (i.e. your greatest advantage)?
Which decision is most likely to lead to an predictable response? (i.e. least variance around the most predictable mean)?
MWP - I believe you play mostly DD. I play mostly shoes, and in my experience, it's VERY rare to see a TC +4 two decks in.
We all know about selective memory, sooo I ran a CVData sim, 400 million rounds, for a 6D shoe, placing the cut card 2 decks in. Looking at the count frequency table in the results, a TC of +4 is reached 0.269% of the time. That's roughly 1 in 400 shoes, and includes shoes where a TC of +4 is reached even earlier than 2 decks.
So it does happen, albeit rarely. In this case, think about who found this count at 2 decks - an "advantage player" who still doesn't know Basic Strategy after 5 years of play. Do you really think he can count cards accurately? Ever hear the old saying, "when you hear hoof beats, don't think zebras"?
Actually rounds, not hands. I simmed the best case scenario, i.e., heads up play. It would be significantly less with multiple players at the table. And this early in the shoe, a high TC is even less likely earlier, so there wouldn't be than a handful of rounds at TC +4 before 2 decks.
Last edited by 21forme; 05-16-2018 at 12:23 PM.
Good analysis 21forme! When you factor in that not only did a TC +4 happen, but also a fairly rare situation (splitting 8s four times) happened at the same time this is a pretty incredible situation. And for the final dismount (lol), a double occurred on that last split. Wow, I can only imagine the odds of all this happening at the same time. I wonder if the frequency of all this happening at the same can be simmed?
I've only been on this forum about 8 months and this is the second time I've seen Zee ask a question about splitting 8s. This seems to be a popular question with Zee. The play that made the least sense to me is doubling the 11 for less. This was the only time a player had an advantage on this hand so I wouldn't have hesitated to double for the full amount. If reducing heat was a factor in why Zee doubled for less, than I would have at least doubled for $75. This would have accomplished the same thing and kept the EV higher. I expect Zee knew not doubling for the full amount on the last hand was the final straw and would cause this crowd to become unglued (so to speak) so I somewhat questioned if this whole situation occurred. I might be be totally wrong and all this really happened.
With this said, it did make for an entertaining thread...and I did learn some things from it since I hate this situation (getting two 8s with my max bet out there). I thought the exchange between Freightman and Three was excellent! Made me see this situation can be handled in different ways, depending on how risk adverse a player is.
When you look at events in the casino in retrospect everything is very rare. What are the odds the last five rolls on the craps table would be what they were? At least (1/18)^5. What are the odds the last 3 spins on the roulette wheel would happen? It is (1/38)^3. Yet both of these in retrospect are 100%. So pretty much everything that happens in the casino can be viewed as a rare event. But in retrospect rare events are common.
That said the source does lack credibility.
Agreed! I've had things happen to me I didn't think could ever happen to anybody. I'm sure this is true for most people out there. When I saw the post was about splitting 8s, I thought back to the last time Zee asked a similar question. If it wasn't for the last play (doubling for less on an 11 against a 10 in a positive count on the last split) I would have believed it. I'm pretty sure Zee knew he'd get a rise out of people with this dismount.
Come on now, if you're going to split 8s three times in a high positive count even a novice AP is going to double this hand for the full amount. The heat argument made little sense since most pit bosses know the player is in a losing position with a pair of 8s against a 10. Most people, even ploppies, would have doubled an 11 for the full amount, especially if they were willing to go all the way and split 8s three times with a $100 on their initial bet. This is when this situation sounded made up...at least to me. The fact that a TC +4 happened 2 decks into a 6 deck shoe was just one more situation that sounded highly unlikely.
Again, a lot of fairly rare things happened all at the same time. And then a bad decision occurred at the end that anybody who has played bj knows. Yes, it could have happened. But really now.....
Should I ask the casino to give me a clip of the play? Are they recorded and kept? I am amazed that you think splitting 4 times is a rare event. I asked myself why I kept splitting and realize it was me trying to be macho. Once I split the original 8's, and then got the first 8, I should have stayed put but I let the ploppies affect me.
If I wanted to lie, I would have written it up so the dealer busted and I won all 4 bets and would never have mentioned the doubling for less. However, you guys want to make every post I make a long 5+ page thread and as a post on another forum (that disparages BJTF) says, "zee is the patsy over at that vodoo forum".
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