Change to the simulator is trivial. The problem is making changes to the user interface that don't make it more confusing -- a major area of concern these days.
Last edited by Norm; 11-30-2022 at 05:15 PM.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
So I was giving this some thought, studying the interface. On the wonging screen, maybe you can include an option on the drop down for 'start play@' which includes 'Shuffle/RC>='. This option should avoid confusion and can also be explained in the Help screen.
On a separate note, I would like to see CE added to the ChartIT! feature. Why do you omit this invaluable metric? It is every bit as important as EV, SD, SCORE, etc.
Also, why does the setting 'Dealer Peeks on 10' turn off when I restart CVCX? That option should remain turned on same as all the others. Not a big deal but it is a nuisance.
MJ
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Well if it is feasible then give it a go. I think it is a worthy addition. In the casino there are players who play right off the top and then sit out a few hands at bad counts and then come back in.
I beg to differ. The MIT Blackjack Teams used this very metric to value their games. They used custom simulators to determine the CE of their play and pay out their players accordingly. Don't believe me? See the Hot Shoe clip below. Also, if you look carefully at the screen you will notice at 1:10:28 their simulator determines CE/Shoe! I would like to see that added to CVData as well.Originally Posted by Norm
Watch from 1:10 to 1:11:24.
By the way, what do you think of the simulator they are using?
The feature turns off in V6. It even turns off sim to sim. You are missing something.Doesn't for me in V5 or V6, unless ES10 is turned on. That's the only place in the code I can see it turned off.
MJ
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Do you mean to say that SCORE is a better performance metric than CE? At the end of the day both metrics take variance into account so they are not entirely different. However CE provides risk adjusted return. SCORE is not without its limitations.
Suppose you are playing a game spreading table min $1 to max of $20 off a 10k BR. Now you have another game with same rules and spread from $10 to $200 with same BR. The SCORE of each game is identical by virtue of spread, however, CE correctly identifies the superior game and best use of your time. I don't understand how you can trivialize CE. A former manager of the MIT Team once told me they would take geometric CE over SCORE any day!
MJ
I don't remember trivializing CE. I said no one is asking for this. Two minutes after the time you gave where they were using a calculator, the guy speaking is now using CVCX. He hasn't asked for CE/shoe. In the example you gave, CE/WR for one of the bet spreads would either show extreme over-betting or extreme under-betting. Of course, the RoR number would also show this, more clearly in my mind.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
OK, I'm happy to jump in and take the bait. SCORE for the two games you mention is identical because it assumes that you're betting intelligently, or optimally, neither of which is the case with your two scenarios. So, if you spread $1 to $10, you're vastly underbetting your bankroll, your ROR is zero, and you win $3.51 an hour. Your CE is almost the same ($3.26) and the CE/WR that you mention is 0.93.
Spread $10 to $200, and now you're overbetting, you win ten times as much per hour ($35.07), but your ROR jumps to over 25%, your CE is $10.63 and, accordingly, your CE/WR is now a much lower 0.30.
So what's your point? Both ways of playing are patently absurd. SCORE tells you that the most efficient use of your capital is to spread $7 to $140, win about $25 an hour, with CE = $12.50, and the CE/WR = the classic 0.50 for optimal betting.
So, I'm not sure exactly what your point is, but if you're telling me that MIT was in the habit of routinely betting stupidly, I'm not sure I'm buying it.
Don
Where do you see a calculator? I see them typing inputs and running a simulation. See 1:10:27 of aforementioned clip. I would like to know your opinion of their software. Are you at all impressed by what it can do? If you maximize the screen, you will notice the output shows not only certainty equivalent/shoe but even 'uncert' which I'm guessing is the standard error. The CE/shoe was $488 and the uncert. ~ $20. That is a standard error of 4.09%.
MJ
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