Value of penetration

[Stealth]

No,this is not a measure of sexual prowess but it is about Blackjack deck penetration.

The chart presented represents the data collected from a controlled set of CVCX sims all with the following protocols:

6 deck, Hit 17, surrender
10K bank optimal betting with a 1-12 spread

Chart presents win/loss percentage for a number of different count system and each with varying numbers of cards behind the cut card of 78, 52, 39, 26

While this thread is NOT about the value of counting systems, it is intended to highlight the overriding importance of penetration.

It is not hard to see that penetration is worth more than the difference between any of the counting systems. New counters should be counseled to understand this as many do not.

Your thoughts?

Countsystems.JPG

[Romes]

My thoughts would be very few 6D games have 26 and 39 card cut offs so the majority of people should be looking at the bottom 2 chunks of the bars =P...

Great chart to illustrate the point of penetration, and how it appears to effectively more than double your win% from 1.5 decks to .25 decks cut off. Again though, unless you're in Vegas beggars can't always be choosers =).

[Stealth]

Ok, I agree with the thought that they are rare. What I wanted to get across is the VALUE when you do find them and it does happen. Point is, penetration is very high on the priority list and I do not believe that is a well understood concept with newer players.


Another view point using SCORE as the key measure:

Six Deck with three pen levels at HiLo and with three different bet spreads.
Pen.SCORE.JPG

[Romes]

I think newer players don't get that concept. Not sure if that's what you meant to type... New players seem to think "I can do +1 and -1, let's go start winning" and don't have any concept of Penetration, RoR, etc, etc.

Penetration (in my opinion) is #2 on the list of importance for a game:
1) Heat
2) Penetration
3) Speed
4) Side Bets
5) Rules/HE

Ironic how many newbies waste the day walking around looking for S17 games, when that's near the bottom of my list for things to look for...

[Freightman]

Interestingly enough, I ran into a fairly new counter yesterday whom I think only had a partial grasp of the concept.

I've explained to others in the past that EV per 100 hands is, dollars per hour, worth x at 66%, Y at 75%, Z at 82%, and super Z at 90%.
Matters not the count system, provided executed well. Deep deck pen forgives the transgression of many poor casino rules.

[Freightman]

I think newer players don't get that concept. Not sure if that's what you meant to type... New players seem to think "I can do +1 and -1, let's go start winning" and don't have any concept of Penetration, RoR, etc, etc.

Penetration (in my opinion) is #2 on the list of importance for a game:
1) Heat
2) Penetration
3) Speed
4) Side Bets
5) Rules/HE

Ironic how many newbies waste the day walking around looking for S17 games, when that's near the bottom of my list for things to look for...

I think a more accurate explanation of your number 1 - tolerance, explained as lack of heat.also, 99.9% of my play is H17, though it would be fair to say that S17 also makes up for some lousy deck pen.

[Bigdaddy]

I think newer players don't get that concept. Not sure if that's what you meant to type... New players seem to think "I can do +1 and -1, let's go start winning" and don't have any concept of Penetration, RoR, etc, etc.

Penetration (in my opinion) is #2 on the list of importance for a game:
1) Heat
2) Penetration
3) Speed
4) Side Bets
5) Rules/HE

Interesting that you include side bets as an important factor. Would you care to expand on that thought? i.e., are you thinking that a decent side bet can increase the overall EV significantly, or are you thinking the presence of a side bet sucks because it slows the game too much? If the former, then what side bets do you look for?

[Romes]

Interesting that you include side bets as an important factor. Would you care to expand on that thought? i.e., are you thinking that a decent side bet can increase the overall EV significantly, or are you thinking the presence of a side bet sucks because it slows the game too much? If the former, then what side bets do you look for?

Whilst I won't give away much, I will say a couple things that are well known... And this was more for "longevity blackjack." There was a couple places somewhat near me that were my only options for hours and hours, so needless to say I had to camp out at them when I wanted to play. I found some side bets were actually worth MORE than my hourly EV given I was playing a bit lower stakes. Even someone spreading light green there are side bets that are worth more per hour than the actual BJ EV... and yes, the penetration was a huge huge factor. The side bet might only be worth $20/hour with crappy pen, but might be worth $100/hour with good pen. Find a good pen dealer, spread light on the BJ, and this made for a nice hourly of about $125/hour while only spreading 1-6 at 6D blackjack... i.e. fly right under the radar. Could camp out for hours and hours. To this day never had any heat at these places.

Then factor me picking up my partner... One of us could use a specialized count for the side bet, and the other could count for betting/playing decisions. We took every opportunity we could to squeek out every dollar and I'm quite proud to say that when we were playing smaller stakes ($15-$90) we were still earning well over $100/hour, each.

[Freightman]

Then factor me picking up my partner... One of us could use a specialized count for the side bet, and the other could count for betting/playing decisions. We took every opportunity we could to squeek out every dollar and I'm quite proud to say that when we were playing smaller stakes ($15-$90) we were still earning well over $100/hour, each.

I chuckled at a situation I came across. 6d shoe game - party pit environment - the boyfriend was spreading 100 to 400, socializing, wonging out half the night, while girlfriend was spreading 10 to 60, without wonging out. Boyfriend did the main count, while girlfriend, darn near on his lap, took care of the specialized side count. Girlfriend would give him a shot in the ribs when the sidecount became advantageous. They were effective.

Obviously, I took advantage of the sidecount gambit.

[Three]

I hate it when people present something like this and obviously handicap Hiopt2 by not using it with and ace side count. Nobody plays it that way.

Anyway on the point of the thread in shoe games I don't see the baby blue pen much and rarely the orange. The few times I got that kind of pen didn't work out so well but I know with an adequate sample size things would approach expectation. One thing like to add is I often see things differently than other people. I see percentage gain instead of monetary gain. Those that tell a small earner that something isn't worth it because it isn't much in dollars but it is a big percentage increase really doesn't understand what the perils are of playing underfunded. That said it is definitely true that things unrelated to count will be the biggest improvements for beginners. Pen is on the list but playing 2 spots is even more important. When I started being serious I was told I didn't have the BR for playing 2 spots. I did anyway and the gain from that was the biggest gain I could get. Fortunately I seemed to get lucky with having big losses being boookended by big wins. After growing a decent BR I saw just how lucky I was with larger swings when I could afford them. There are many ways to play. Back counting, white rabbit, playall etc. I preferred white rabbit and always played 2 spots. Pen is very important though. Especially if you you are playing H17 or without surrender.

[Sharky]

pen cures ALL!!!

[Sharky]

...

Penetration (in my opinion) is #2 on the list of importance for a game:
1) Heat
2) Penetration
3) Speed
4) Side Bets
5) Rules/HE
....

heat isn't even on my list....but, if you are looking for it....I'm am sure it finds you!

GOOD LUCK!

[mofungoo]

The important thing for new players, and also some older players, to understand is how much bad pen affects ROR. Basically, the gain decreases but fluctuations remain roughly the same. A player may have to drop their unit size to get a reasonable ROR. Unit = base bet for purposes of this discussion.