Maths question: Optimum sports bet size

[James989]

Well, yes and no. If you never resize your bets, as your bankroll fluctuates, then the above is fine. But, if you simply calculate the Kelly optimal bet for the moment you are wagering (a lot easier with sports betting than for blackjack), then you simply keep making the optimal bet for every wager, and you never go broke.

There is an adjustment to the formula for simultaneous wagers (which happens often in sports), but it is a small adjustment, and usually allows you to have the entirety of your bankroll in play for any given afternoon.

Don

Could you please show us how to calculate the adjustment for simultaneous wagers especially for advantage baccarat sidebets play that may occur simultaneously ? The good example is EGALITE baccarat sidebets, see link : https://wizardofodds.com/games/bacca...-bets/egalite/

[ummagumma]

your post is correct

the portion I quoted indicates that your decision is subjective, not objective

so, unless you are using this to enforce some sort of discipline upon yourself you might as well make a subjective decision about your bet size

in betting sports, unlike blackjack, your edge can only be theoretical

you may postulate that you have a 4% edge on one bet and a 8% edge on another bet so you cannot possibly know what an optimum bet size actually is

this fact indicates that you might as well be subjective about your bet size too

since you cannot possibly know with a great deal of accuracy what your edge is or if you even have an edge








in posing the question the OP seemed to assume that whatever you learned in blackjack will easily carry over into sports betting
that is not the case at all



in betting blackjack you can calculate that if you have a 1% edge, that if you make 30,000 bets in one year that you are very likely to come very close to realizing your true expectation


there is nothing even remotely similar to that in betting sports



and that partially explains the great mystery and challenge of sports betting - unlike blackjack you are largely dealing with the unknown

Yes, I understand that fully and it's always been something that's bothered me. I always attempt, probably vainly, to quantify as far as I can, any bets that I ever make and over the years I've generally found my approach works. But I do understand that in the great scheme of things it can all break down in the blink of an eye. Even the great Steidlmayer found every time he looked to gloat over his profits from his Market Profile analysis things would go down the shitter. But the main reason for me starting this thread was to make sure I knew how to calculate the optimum bet, assuming my data was representative of the infinite field of data. I do understand that in the real world this is unlikely. But we grasp on to what straws we can, don't we ? Well, I do anyway....

[RS]

your post which is correct indicates (from the portion I quoted) that the decision you make about bet size is subjective, not objective

so, unless you are using this to enforce a discipline upon yourself

then, you might as well make any subjective decision about your bet size

the point being that when you are betting sports your edge is only theoretical - unlike blackjack - so your decisions about bet size might as well be theoretical too

because you may postulate i.e that you have a 5% edge on this bet and a 8% edge on another bet

so, since this cannot possibly be 100% accurate then there cannot possibly be a 100% accurate way to decide on your bet size

Good point! Since we can't be 100% accurate on our edge, we should just throw everything out the window and bet random amounts, right? You do realize that bet sizing in blackjack is subjective for the same reason (kelly/risk) too, right?

Where do you come up with such crazy thoughts and ideas?

[James989]

DSchles,

Could you please show us how to calculate the adjustment for simultaneous wagers especially for advantage baccarat sidebets play that may occur simultaneously ? The good example is EGALITE baccarat sidebets, see link : https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/side-bets/egalite/

Thanks

James

[DSchles]

I have to find the paper in which this is addressed. It is from a long time ago, and, while I know I have it, I have to put my finger on it. In the meantime, when it's a question of only, say, two or three simultaneous wagers, and the Kelly fraction is reasonably small, the amounts for each are virtually the same as if you made just the single bets.

If you google "simultaneous Kelly wagers," you will find much on the subject.

Don

[DSchles]

DSchles,

Could you please show us how to calculate the adjustment for simultaneous wagers especially for advantage baccarat sidebets play that may occur simultaneously ? The good example is EGALITE baccarat sidebets, see link : https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/side-bets/egalite/

Thanks

James

Aha! Try this: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...ly-calculator/

Don

[James989]

Thanks Don