Quote Originally Posted by UK-21 View Post
I don't understand this point - one simply makes the correct play for the player hand / dealer hand / true count combination, and by doing so one maximises the chances of winning or minimises the chances of losing. Yep, on some hands all play options are -EV, but you'd make the play that has the least probability of losing, based upon the perceived composition of the cards remaining to be played at that point in time (as determined by the true count).

Penetration, the number of decks in use and rulesets are important variables in the game, and depending on what they may be may render a game impossible to obtain an advantage from. But this is not always the case, and where conditions are favourable, and combined with the simple practice of betting more during the 20%-ish of time when you have an advantage, and your minimum for the 80% of time when you don't, you'll win out over time. It's very simple and it does work, although errors in keeping the count, estimating the number of decks still in the shoe or calculating your advantage can dilute away any advantage and cost you dear.

If you're a green chip counter, and spread from $50-$800 (if you can get away with it), even with pretty modest H17 conditions your average hourly return is still probably more than the guy in surveillance who's being paid to catch you. This is why players who apply the skill of counting cards at the single deck, double deck and shoe dealt blackjack tables offered by casinos are not welcome patrons.

Chin chin. :-)
Hey thanks for the comment; you make some good point. I concede the top. However I don't think you can assume that full %20 and bet large there as wins tend to follow the consumption of 10s and we don't know when those will come or how. Also those small cards hurts us more than the 10s ever can help. So during those %80-ish of the time our probability of losing is several % more than during the %20 of the time our probability of winning. In the long run, you probably lose more from those $50 bets than win from the $800 bets.