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If you insure when there are less than 33.333% TENS remaining, it's -EV.
If you insure when there are exactly 33.333% TENS remaining, the EV = 0 (breakeven proposition, no edge either way).
If you insure when there are more than 33.333% TENS remaining, it's +EV.
Remember, insurance is simply a side bet that is strictly betting the dealer's hole card is a T. EV wise, it has nothing to do with what your hand is. If you have a big bet out, catch a 20 and dealer has an Ace, you might insure anyway to lock in a win (except the rare occasion when the dealer hits to 21 beating your 20)....even if the count doesn't call for insurance.....but making the insurance bet (in this case) is still -EV.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
Your first three examples are exactly right. You should have stopped there. In the example outlined in the following paragraph, you are not locking in anything. As you said yourself, it is a completely separate bet. Take insurance if the count calls for it. Don't take it if it doesn't.
Hi,
Not sure if this helps but...
Everything I've read states that insurance is +EV when the HiLo TC is >=+3. That's all there is to it. The name "insurance" is not very apt to me. You're not insuring anything. You're betting on whether the Dealer has a 10 down when she has an Ace up. That's it. It's just a side bet that has nothing to do with your hand.
For me, with a TC of +3, I have 4 units out. As the TC gets higher, I have more units out. So, my "insurance" side bets only occur when I have 4 units or more out. I don't know if you consider those "large" or not. I might do something else for cover once in a while but it's not the correct play from an EV stand point.
It is irrelevant to me what MY CARDS might be (except it is called "taking even money" if I ALSO have a Blackjack) since the bet has nothing to do with MY CARDS. The bet is about the DEALER'S CARDS. Whenever I put out a bet that is 4 units or larger, I KNOW if I see the Dealer draw an Ace up, to start getting my insurance bet out there since they often don't give you enough time. (They nearly all assume no one is going to take insurance until you've done it a couple of times and then most of them will slow down.) And, if I have a "large" bet out, it means there are more ACES and 10's coming out (HiLo) so I know the odds go up that someone, including the Dealer, is going to get a Blackjack.
This is the point in my game where I'm most alert because of the greater stress from having higher bets out, calculating the amount of the "insurance" side bet, getting the bet out fast enough and the greater likelihood of the Dealer getting Blackjack. It means I have to be ready with an "insurance" side bet and it means I also have to remember to count her 10 card (if the Dealer has it) because the hand is cut short abruptly, everyone whines and groans, and the cards will be scooped up more quickly than normal. It's easy to forget to count her 10 down card with all the commotion.
A lot is going on when high bets are out! The real bummer is when the TC is high, the Dealer has a 10 card up and checks for Blackjack and SHE HAS IT! Then, you don't even get a chance to place the side bet and your bigger bets are just gone (unless you also have a BJ). Too bad they don't let you place the side bet if the Dealer has an Ace OR A 10 CARD up...
Last edited by SiMi; 03-08-2014 at 09:01 AM.
You're completely misunderstanding this and are looking at it the wrong way. You've received excellent answers, but you're still telling us when YOU insure, when your question was: when do WE insure, and what criteria should go into the decision?
In fact, there are nuanced composition-dependent insurance indices that vary from values somewhat below 3.0 to somewhat above, depending on the actual two cards in your hand. But, that has absolutely nothing to do with your method for deciding which hands to insure, which is quite erroneous.
The 33.33% proportion of tens comes not from how many there are in a full pack (4/13 = 30.77%), but rather what proportion there needs to be, after cards have been dealt out, to make insurance a profitable wager. Since the bet pays 2:1, you would need at least 1/3 of the remaining cards to be tens to have an advantage on the insurance wager. And, yet, again, what you hold in your hand at the moment makes virtually no difference whatsoever.
Clear?
Don
You're being silly. You have index numbers for a variety of plays that you make: stand, double, split, surrender. And, you have one for insurance: >=+3, you insure; <+3, you don't. What's to have a weak point in your game? Makes no sense. You're waaaay overthinking this.
Don
I have been reading "Risk & Reward, The Science of Casino Blackjack" By Werthammer,
He states the Hi-Lo insurance positive threshold is around +4, but only near the start of the shoe and rises as the depth increases. At deep penetration it is a -EV at +4. He suggests a player use +4.5 to +5. Then sums it up: "Overall insurance does not represent much incremental value and is lot less than claimed: The weekend Hi-Lo counter, who plays about 10 hours on a trip, can disregard it with very little loss or accept the offer at +5. The BJ pro, who plays every day, gets some value from the insurance bet.
Your hand COULD play a factor in determining whether or not to buy insurance, but is not optimal nor highly recommended. Insuring a 20 in a TC of 2.5 for variance reduction is not the worst play, but not recommended if you are looking for maximum EV with no worries of variance.
Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk
Sage
I just ran 7 sims in BJ678 for my normal game and took insurance at various times. Here's the returns with all other factors held the same:
TAKE INS AT RETURN
Never--------------->1.11%
Only when
I had BJ------------>1.11%
TC = +3----------->1.21%
TC = +4----------->1.22
TC = +5----------->1.23
TC = +6----------->1.20
TC = +7----------->1.18
Maybe I screwed something up but this seems to agree with what you read...
Last edited by SiMi; 03-08-2014 at 04:07 PM.
Insurance is a side bet totally independent from your main bet. Sometimes you are at an advantage and should bet it, and most times you are not and should not. It's that simple, as far as the mathematics. However, there are some non-mathematics considerations. Insurance is one of the top giveaways of a counter. If you don't take insurance, especially on good hands like BJ or 20's and then all of the sudden start insuring everything, even your 15's or hard 7's....uhhh well, stamp card counter on your forehead. For this reason, I do take insurance differently depending on my hand. I insure BJ, 20's, 19's and 10, 11 doubledowns, right at the threshold, but hold off on 'bad' hands, like stiffs and so forth, just a bit, usually to TC +4 neighborhood, which co-incides with my max bet. So by the time I am insuring stiffs, I am at max bet and exiting at the next shuffle. Yet, another reason to exit after hitting max bet (showing your spread).
Now one thing about insurance that is a little annoying is that while you are not technically insuring your hand, your hand and insurance wager are connected in a negative way because you cannot win both wagers, except in the case of BJ, but you can and often do lose both wagers.
Now I'll probably get a STFU, email or two for this, but imagine if instead of insuring the dealer's Ace at mathematically +EV times, in which you win while the dealer has BJ, you could insure your own Ace (same rules at 2-1). Now that would be something! You could win both bets! Oh wait....there is a side bet, where you can do just that. Oh and even better, your side bet (insurance type bet on your first card ace) is not limited to half your main wager, although most places do have a lower side bet max. But two places that I place, allow you to wager on other players first card aces as well as your own. This can get a little crazy, with several wagers by different players, but under the right circumstances.... Of course on the downside, like all side bets, this slows down the game, so there is good with bad.
Last edited by KJ; 03-08-2014 at 05:49 PM. Reason: removed name of game
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