Questions for the statisticians: What is the probability that a team with a 4-6 record to make it to the playoff?
They have been quoting those stats on the red zone channel and the NFL network. I wouldn't trust my memory of what they said but I remember as around 7%.
When they said it I thought it depends about the situation so the stat is misleading. If you are referring to Philly. I thought that though they are only two out of the division leader but have a SB champ schedule and the wild card is further out of reach than the division title that they were worse off. But a while later the division leading Redskins' quarterback, Alex Smith, broke his leg and will be out the rest of the season. If you assume they will fall out of being the division winner as the result of the injury then they are just one game behind the Cowboys. But they already lost to the cowboys so to be truly one game out they would need to beat the Cowboys in their second game on 12/9. That would put the Eagles at 2-1 in the division and the Cowboys at 2-2. The Cowboys host WAS, NO, and PHI in their next 3 games before going on the road to face IND, then host TB and go to face the NYG. Except for NO they are all winnable games. The Eagles host the NYG, the Redskins, and then go to DAL. If they win those games they are in good shape except for the next two games are on the road facing LA and host HOU. Both of those teams will be tough wins. Then they finish their division schedule in WAS. So they are probably toast if they don't win the next 3 games and steal one of those two tough games. Playing one against DAL (one game behind DAL) and 2 against WAS (2 games behind WAS) puts the in control of their own destiny but the odds don't look good. There is lire to no margin of error and they looked pitiful this week against NO.
The Cowboys look to be coming together as a team and the Eagles look like the wheels are falling off their cart. If the Redskins can make the next man up work after losing Alex Smith for the season it will be a miracle. My money is on the Cowboys to win the division but Philly are still in control of their own destiny should they pull their team together and win the games they must win. Not likely.
Best I could do was this (7%): https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/3nw2nj/probability_of_nfl_teams_to_make_playoffs_by/
Don
Email: [email protected]
Sweeping generalizations in matters like these are problematic. The most significant question would be, what are the records of the other teams in that division? What is the remaining schedule for that 4-6 team? And how many home and road games remain in the final 6 games.
If it's Philly, I don't like their chances. When a defending Super Bowl champion finds itself 4-6, usually it doesn't result in a turnaround but dissension and rancor. And let's not even get into the 48 points they allowed. They have problems. But they did get their SB. The game in Dallas on Thanksgiving becomes big as Washington now must go forward without their starting QB and Dallas is fresh off a pair of wins on the road.
I agree over a TD seems like a lot. The Cowboys in that new stadium have NOT done well ATS. And yes, laying over a TD in divisional games is a way to disaster. So I won't be on Dallas. But there are a couple things that keep me from running to the window on Washington. First off, road teams in Thursday games are at a much bigger disadvantage than road teams for Sunday games. The week is very short, with little practice time. And while Smith is not Rodgers, he's still a capable NFL quarterback and an upgrade over McCoy, who hasn't started a game in 4 years. I also think Washington's D is not as good as it appears; 3 points allowed vs Tampa, great effort, right? But then you see 501 yards allowed that game. Tampa self destructed numerous times, including several in the red zone. In the history of the NFL, no team had ever amassed over 500 yards of offense and managed only 3 points. Some extreme positive variance there for the Skins D.
They grew two interceptions in what could have been game winning drives. I thought we might get overtime. The game was the third highest scoring game in NFL history. Overtime would have tied it for the second highest scoring game in NFL history. A TD in overtime , which almost seems a given in this game would have made it the highest scoring NFL game in history. It was the first NFL game where both teams scored more than 50 points.
On the subject of the Eagles play-off hopes, have you all looked at the huge injury cluster in the Eagles defensive backfield? I don't see how they can win this weak with such a massive weakness to exploit. Four of five cornerbacks out, the other questionable. The starting middle linebacker out with only one backup listed on the depth chart. Three strong safeties and three free safeties listed on the depth chart but the third string of each is out. That leaves 1 cornerback, 2 free safeties, 2 strong safeties, 1 middle linebacker, 2 weak side linebackers, 2 strong side linebackers, and a bunch of defensive linemen to field their defense. Dallas took care of the injury weakened Redskins. But can any pro offense not take major advantage of such injury issues to the defensive backfield? That means the Eagles offense will need to really be good to have a hope of keeping pace. I am not seeing that happening. This problem isn't going to go away quickly. Injuries don't just go away completely. Rein jury to players coming back is high, especially for RB, receivers and those that have to cover them. It looks like the Eagles hopes of making the playoffs went from slim to none. I guess they can hope for turnovers and special teams play. They do control their own destiny.
Bookmarks