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  1. #14
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    true, as in playing stocks, one golden rule.....it takes money to make money. what i need to get over (@64 years young) is that it doesent bother me as much to lose,...we'll say a goodly amt. tinkering with equities, but it bugs the shit out of me to lose 4/500 at bj.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by fiddler View Post
    true, as in playing stocks, one golden rule.....it takes money to make money. what i need to get over (@64 years young) is that it doesent bother me as much to lose,...we'll say a goodly amt. tinkering with equities, but it bugs the shit out of me to lose 4/500 at bj.
    The Older you get, and assuming one has been diligent in the accumulation of money for retirement, the Less the need or want for excessive risk. The mix if my retirement funds are in light to medium light risk funds, with approx 10% in medium risk. So, with reference to Married Putters very interesting post, the educated person, may well choose the lower return scenarios simply because excessive risk for higher return is not needed.

    I suppose the same philosophies could be intelligently directed towards AP activity. Interesting topic - maybe someone will start a thread on it.

  3. #16
    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by marriedputter View Post
    Option A involves an 80% chance you win $4,000, but a 20% chance you win nothing. Option B guarantees you win $3,000 for sure
    .80X4,000=3,200
    1. X3,000=3,000

    Difference 200

    Would I take a 20% chance of losing it all for a measly $ 200?

    If this was a 1 time deal, I would not. If it was a continuing bet, I would.
    Last edited by Bodarc; 05-06-2016 at 07:55 PM.
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    So, with reference to Married Putters very interesting post, the educated person, may well choose the lower return scenarios simply because excessive risk for higher return is not needed.
    Which is why those close to retirement put more and more money in US Treasuries. Woe to those who had most of their life savings in the stock market as they were approaching retirement in 2008.
    Let's play with these numbers more, shall we? If instead of numbers like $4,000 and $3,000, let's say we were talking about $4 and $3. If it were a one-time offer, you'd probably just go for winning the $4. But if it were $4,000,000 vs. $3,000,000, I too would take the $3,000,000 because that is all that I would need. I wouldn't even need to play the "long-run" game anymore.
    Certainly there can come a time when percentages and odds don't matter anymore. If a big payout is all you need, and the one-time offer covers it, go for the sure thing.

    Ever see Brewster's Millions? I probably would have taken the million.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bodarc View Post
    .80X4,000=3,200
    1. X3,000=3,000

    Difference 200

    Would I take a 20% chance of losing it all for a measly $ 200?

    If this was a 1 time deal, I would not. If it was a continuing bet, I would.
    I still would because the $1000 difference is just not that much to me. I would go for the $4,000. If it were $4,000,000 vs. $3,000,000 though, we would be in agreement.

  6. #19


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    I don't understand the point of this thread. I hate the implication that an AP doesn't care if he loses his entire bankroll, so long as he had +EV! It's so trite and wrong. I don't care about +EV, I care about actual results. I know there are some people who track their EV--which makes no sense to me. Why? Stats junkie? EV is a math tool used to achieve those positive results. Just like any ploppy, I'd take luck any day. Unfortunately, I have the knowledge that luck has a way of evening out and not actually existing, unless you wanna equate luck with variance.

    I've never noticed an attachment to money being an actual handicap to a newbie. It's thinking card counting is a get-rich-quick scheme--that's the handicap. They have a $200 bankroll and they bet $70 per hand, and they don't think perfect basic strategy is important enough to learn because the counting part is what's important. I'd say not being attached enough to the money they have is a handicap. It takes discipline and patience. And that's what the newbie lacks. All these sucky non-"AP's" don't lose money to the casino because they are too attached to their money--it's because they read a paragraph in a book about card counting and pissed away a bunch of their money for no good reason.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-07-2016 at 03:08 AM.

  7. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    I know there are some people who track their EV--which makes no sense to me. Why? Stats junkie?
    There are lots of reasons. Here are some of the best:
    1) To know how close your results are tracking to EV.
    2) Tracking how good a day you had concerning wonging etc. All you can do is maximize EV and hope for the best. If you log a low EV consistently you should consider changing your approach to the game.
    3) Errors in your play can be flagged by consistently coming in below EV.

    That being said playing in the casino has constantly changing dynamics that the sim will never accurately represent. You have varying pen by dealer. Players jumping in and out of the shoe. You have heat considerations. You have game speed considerations. You have dealer error considerations. When wonging out these things are considered but also table availability number of cards left in the shoe. If leaving the casino is the option how far to the next game if your aren't calling it a day. Then you have varying opportunities and table betting restrictions based on time of day and casino procedures like opening new tables and changing cards. They are all dynamic situations with some benefits that can be planned for if you know the casino procedural rhythms and player tends. You can do your best but can't plan accurately knowing all this. You make your best plans to get the best of what you are looking for and make daily adjustments according to what you actually find that day. Such a changing dynamic environment can never be simmed accurately. I sim what I can accurately and if I use my ability to try to maximize adjusting to the dynamics of playing in the casino I know the sim results will be conservative.

    So factoring in the dynamics of actual casino play, the plusses of tracking EV get watered down a lot.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post

    So factoring in the dynamics of actual casino play, the plusses of tracking EV get watered down a lot.
    Well, I'd think so! And it's impossible to track each hand without some sort of illegal device, so you're guestimating. I think it's absolutely useless and a giant waste of time.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    Well, I'd think so! And it's impossible to track each hand without some sort of illegal device, so you're guestimating. I think it's absolutely useless and a giant waste of time.
    Tracking your EXACT EV may be difficult, but it's still important to track. Otherwise, how will you know if your falling slightly short or EXTREMELY short of your target???

    Actual results can be very misleading, especially to new players that don't understand the concept of EV or use the aid of software to give them a realistic idea of what their hourly expectation "should" be. For many new players, big losing streaks may totally discourage them completely; where as a few big winning sessions may empower them to bet foolishly and over-bet their BR as a result of being too overly confident. Winning $3,000 in a single session shouldn't allow you to over-estimate your blackjack skills, just as much as losing $3,000 should allow you to underestimate them too (as long as you're playing "correctly").

    I know for a fact that I don't track my EV 100% correctly, but if I fall anywhere between 70% and 80% of my "projected simmed EV", then I know I'm on the right track. I give myself that wiggle room to make room for counting/betting errors, cover plays, betting cover, over-estimation of rounds played per hour, etc.

    I suppose if you're playing recreationally, then I can understand the disinterest in tracking EV, but I certainly don't do it because I consider myself a stats junky by any means. I track EV (the best I can) because I treat blackjack like a business. Blackjack is an income supplement, so I try to stay on top of the stats as much as I can. I dread tracking the EV though. It's the least exciting part about this venture, but I do it anyway, as I feel it's necessary to any serious AP. Saying that tracking EV is "absolutely useless and a giant waste of time" is like saying a business owner shouldn't keep good P&L records, because it's a waste of time. That doesn't make sense...

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    Well, I'd think so! And it's impossible to track each hand without some sort of illegal device, so you're guestimating. I think it's absolutely useless and a giant waste of time.
    If you are a "lone wolf" then certainly you only need to know "actual results", any type of other affiliations such as small or large teams (or a professional, IMO) would be foolish to not track the results for a myriad of valid reasons.

    It may be impossible to track every hand but it is not impossible to have a tracing protocol and systems that is accurate enough to make comparisons of your sessions results to model's like cvdata and cvcx.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bodarc View Post
    Option A involves an 80% chance you win $4,000, but a 20% chance you win nothing. Option B guarantees you win $3,000 for sure
    I believe the value of these two options can be evaluated with the concept of certainty equivalency (CE), which when used in Blackjack is fundamentally risk adjusted EV. MIT teams paid players using this concept.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryemo View Post
    Tracking your EXACT EV may be difficult, but it's still important to track. Otherwise, how will you know if your falling slightly short or EXTREMELY short of your target???

    Actual results can be very misleading, especially to new players that don't understand the concept of EV or use the aid of software to give them a realistic idea of what their hourly expectation "should" be. For many new players, big losing streaks may totally discourage them completely; where as a few big winning sessions may empower them to bet foolishly and over-bet their BR as a result of being too overly confident. Winning $3,000 in a single session shouldn't allow you to over-estimate your blackjack skills, just as much as losing $3,000 should allow you to underestimate them too (as long as you're playing "correctly").

    I know for a fact that I don't track my EV 100% correctly, but if I fall anywhere between 70% and 80% of my "projected simmed EV", then I know I'm on the right track. I give myself that wiggle room to make room for counting/betting errors, cover plays, betting cover, over-estimation of rounds played per hour, etc.

    I suppose if you're playing recreationally, then I can understand the disinterest in tracking EV, but I certainly don't do it because I consider myself a stats junky by any means. I track EV (the best I can) because I treat blackjack like a business. Blackjack is an income supplement, so I try to stay on top of the stats as much as I can. I dread tracking the EV though. It's the least exciting part about this venture, but I do it anyway, as I feel it's necessary to any serious AP. Saying that tracking EV is "absolutely useless and a giant waste of time" is like saying a business owner shouldn't keep good P&L records, because it's a waste of time. That doesn't make sense...
    For years, my results have been significantly above simmed EV. How do I know that if I don't track EV? Because I tracked how much money I made. All that tells me is that the sim is a simulation, and not real life. Simulated EV tells you reliably how one game compares to another. And it tells you how one spread compares to another. But to think that it perfectly mirrors real life...I don't buy it. I think simple arithmetic tells you your edge, and EV need not be tracked. Simulation is for experimentation or projection or other thought experiments, in my book. Not comparison. If I'm falling 'short of my target', I get unhappy. And I start wonging in and out more aggressively. I go to lower minimums with a larger spread. This is based on ACTUAL results, not EV. I don't go to my computer and ask it what the problem is. Obviously, I'm not making recommendations to others.

    If you fall well below simmed EV, why are you on the wrong track? Doesn't variance ever put you below that margin? Do you normally play a billion hands in a session? I seriously don't see the point.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-08-2016 at 01:36 AM.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    If you are a "lone wolf" then certainly you only need to know "actual results", any type of other affiliations such as small or large teams (or a professional, IMO) would be foolish to not track the results for a myriad of valid reasons.

    It may be impossible to track every hand but it is not impossible to have a tracing protocol and systems that is accurate enough to make comparisons of your sessions results to model's like cvdata and cvcx.
    Well, yeah, I think team management would want to do it to prevent theft. But I don't see why I would want to track my own EV. Basically, tracking your EV is like a check on whether you are making mistakes. Well, to me, that's like always wearing a helmet and kneepads when you ride your bicycle. It doesn't really prevent the fall, it just makes me swerve at you if I see you dressed like that.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-08-2016 at 01:44 AM.

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