Lol, tough crowd.Originally Posted by HowMany
OK I'll take a stab at it.
God knows WHY I'm bothering, LOL, this thread has gotten epic but Mr BJ75's stubborn resistance to explaining his Magic System appears to have sucked in a lot of us here, who otherwise would never have started in with it...
So, he concedes it's not a Martingale. Even progressionists seem to "know" that straight Martingale is a loser, apparently. Good for them at least that far.
He also explains that it's got "levels".
And it's designed to "outlast dealer streaks" (although he never had any answer to my "what about casino-streaks" question).
He also says $5000 will be "enough".
Also he understands that table limits are a factor, you can only increase your bet so far before hitting the limit where the casino won't let you bet more on one hand.
Finally, he's mainly concerned about first "NOT LOSING" i.e. preserving bankroll... and only will "quit ahead" when the "natural ebb and flow" of variance shines just a little bit of lucky light on him.
SO... IF all that is fairly accurate? Here's my guess at The Magic System!!!
================================================== ======
$5000 bankroll.
Start on $10 tables.
Bet $10. If lose? Bet $10. If lose? Bet $10. If lose? Bet $10.
IF WIN any of the above? Stick with $10 until even OR lost $40 total (i.e. four $10 bets at risk total). Hopefully at some point, start winning.
IF total loss of 4 of these $10 bets happens? Change "unit size" to $50 bet... and start over.
GET EVEN with just ONE of these $50 bets, so that you can "start over" with a $10 win.
OR return to beginning again but assuming to use this $50 unit now... until maybe losing FOUR of these bets?
At this point if you're down $250 at this "second level"... so resize "unit size" again and bet $250 units.
Again, if WIN any of these... you're "even" again, you're "not losing" so you start over.
This could go on, in theory, for up to something like 4 "LEVELS"... up to maximum "unit size" of betting over $1,000 a throw.
(See, that's why he "needs" $5000 for the system to work!)
This "system" can "outlast dealer streaks" (he thinks) because in order to actually LOSE, ya gotta lose 16 hands in a row.
$10 $10 $10 $10 $50 $50 $50 $50 $250 $250 $250 $250 $1250 $1250 $1250 $1250 ... if ALL LOSING HANDS, all in a row? Wipes out bankroll.
But otherwise you're "always preserving bankroll" and getting even to start over, until you can just finally "catch a lucky wave" and "play with the house's money"... finally!
WIN just "one unit" anywhere in there...? And "start over" because you are so "disciplined" a player? Yes, YOU TOO can be a WINNER without all that nasty hard work of card counting!
See, this is "better" than straight Martingale because, as we know, casinos often set table limits so you can only double-up maybe 5 or 6 times... you hit the wall and they don't let you chase losses any more. So this NEW WAY is BETTER!
See The MAGIC???
================================================== ======
So, is this pretty close to your system Mr BJ75??
Care to fill us in on any other brilliant innovations I may have missed in my guess?
Or is this pretty much it?
Inquiring Minds Wanna KNOW!!!
-DBJT
P.S. Sure... try this ONCE and it'll likely work out for you just fine! Even twice. Or every day for a week-long Vegas Vacation Trip... unless you are really a total black-cloud Schleprock, it's likely to hold for you just long enough so you can win, for a while.
BUT EVENTUALLY that losing streak -- not just "dealer streak" but "casino streak" -- will come, with mathematical certainty as 100% as the SUN rises every morning, and wipe out all your gain, just the same.
"Progressionists" probably just can't SEE this, because they have not PLAYED enough yet, to see how possible those loss streaks really are.
But -- trust me -- they're real.
Lady Blackjack is extremely deceptive and she just *laughs* at your "math innocence" and naiveté
DBJT,OK I'll take a stab at it.
God knows WHY I'm bothering, LOL, this thread has gotten epic but Mr BJ75's stubborn resistance to explaining his Magic System appears to have sucked in a lot of us here, who otherwise would never have started in with it...
So, he concedes it's not a Martingale. Even progressionists seem to "know" that straight Martingale is a loser, apparently. Good for them at least that far.
He also explains that it's got "levels".
And it's designed to "outlast dealer streaks" (although he never had any answer to my "what about casino-streaks" question).
He also says $5000 will be "enough".
Also he understands that table limits are a factor, you can only increase your bet so far before hitting the limit where the casino won't let you bet more on one hand.
Finally, he's mainly concerned about first "NOT LOSING" i.e. preserving bankroll... and only will "quit ahead" when the "natural ebb and flow" of variance shines just a little bit of lucky light on him.
SO... IF all that is fairly accurate? Here's my guess at The Magic System!!!
================================================== ======
$5000 bankroll.
Start on $10 tables.
Bet $10. If lose? Bet $10. If lose? Bet $10. If lose? Bet $10.
IF WIN any of the above? Stick with $10 until even OR lost $40 total (i.e. four $10 bets at risk total). Hopefully at some point, start winning.
IF total loss of 4 of these $10 bets happens? Change "unit size" to $50 bet... and start over.
GET EVEN with just ONE of these $50 bets, so that you can "start over" with a $10 win.
OR return to beginning again but assuming to use this $50 unit now... until maybe losing FOUR of these bets?
At this point if you're down $250 at this "second level"... so resize "unit size" again and bet $250 units.
Again, if WIN any of these... you're "even" again, you're "not losing" so you start over.
This could go on, in theory, for up to something like 4 "LEVELS"... up to maximum "unit size" of betting over $1,000 a throw.
(See, that's why he "needs" $5000 for the system to work!)
This "system" can "outlast dealer streaks" (he thinks) because in order to actually LOSE, ya gotta lose 16 hands in a row.
$10 $10 $10 $10 $50 $50 $50 $50 $250 $250 $250 $250 $1250 $1250 $1250 $1250 ... if ALL LOSING HANDS, all in a row? Wipes out bankroll.
But otherwise you're "always preserving bankroll" and getting even to start over, until you can just finally "catch a lucky wave" and "play with the house's money"... finally!
WIN just "one unit" anywhere in there...? And "start over" because you are so "disciplined" a player? Yes, YOU TOO can be a WINNER without all that nasty hard work of card counting!
See, this is "better" than straight Martingale because, as we know, casinos often set table limits so you can only double-up maybe 5 or 6 times... you hit the wall and they don't let you chase losses any more. So this NEW WAY is BETTER!
See The MAGIC???
================================================== ======
So, is this pretty close to your system Mr BJ75??
Care to fill us in on any other brilliant innovations I may have missed in my guess?
Or is this pretty much it?
Inquiring Minds Wanna KNOW!!!
-DBJT
P.S. Sure... try this ONCE and it'll likely work out for you just fine! Even twice. Or every day for a week-long Vegas Vacation Trip... unless you are really a total black-cloud Schleprock, it's likely to hold for you just long enough so you can win, for a while.
BUT EVENTUALLY that losing streak -- not just "dealer streak" but "casino streak" -- will come, with mathematical certainty as 100% as the SUN rises every morning, and wipe out all your gain, just the same.
"Progressionists" probably just can't SEE this, because they have not PLAYED enough yet, to see how possible those loss streaks really are.
But -- trust me -- they're real.
Lady Blackjack is extremely deceptive and she just *laughs* at your "math innocence" and naiveté
I'm giving you a standing O right now. First and foremost, I know I don't even belong at the same table as you guys. Although math was my best subject and in honor courses, I'm a visual, creative minded individual. I find your way of thinking fascinating. I do love numbers and stats though, just no where near the expertise you all have.
With all that said, that is not my system DBJT. I posted that on a $10 table, my min bet is $10 and my max bet on a $1000 BR is $520. I'm wanting to use a $3240 BR in October.
Another thing, look at my numbers. It would take a long time to win the amount I did per casino with the system mentioned above. In the above system, what happens when I loose 4 x $10 and then win 1st hand at $50, now I'm up $10? Do I stay at $50 or go back down to $10? I also mentioned in an earlier post that my average time at a table is 45 mins, thus a hit and run. I think it would take much longer to make the numbers I did using the system above.
All and all, there is no reason to guess any longer. I do use a progression model that I worked on. I like it, and realize I won't find anyone here to help me with my BR. I will still jump into conversations and ask questions along the way. I'm always learning.
Thank you.
I'll will tell you what this reminds me of. As you might know or not, there are two types of firms when it comes to selling stock and bonds. There are brokerage firms and there are independent firms. Well I cut my teeth in the industry on the brokerage side, which is how everyone does it.
It was like a cult, they would have regional meetings and this and that all the time. At these mtgs they would always tell you how bad the dark side was, the independent side. They would throw numbers and charts up to prove their theory. They would have big wigs and guest speakers share their negative thoughts on going independent. They would always claim there's no way to make money in the long run. Sounding familiar? 5 years later, I decided to stop drinking the cool aid and jumped over to the independent side. I took all my clients with me, although the naysayers said they wouldn't go. Long story short, I doubled my money and then tripled. Everything I was told was based on facts and numbers, yet didn't take into consideration the other variables that were unknown to the naysayers.
Also much like theses threads, I'm reminded of a call I made to my buddy back at the brokerage firm who I actually brought into the business. He was now a rising star with the brokerage firm when I called him that day. I said I know how you feel about independents, but you can make money as one. You will make more, be your own boss and spend much more time with your young family. I asked him just have lunch to hear me out, that's all. He said no, and wouldn't even give it a chance. He wouldn't even listen to the guy that brought him into the business where he was currently a star!
Feels all to similar.
Are you aware, that in brokerage, you are on the side of the House? YES, absolutely, your system will work for the house -- the casino. Progression systems work if you have positive EV and fail if you do not. Financial instruments have an overall positive EV over time. Casino games, without using AP techniques, do not. That's why casinos love guys like you and have won trillions over centuries.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
There was a guy on one of the forums many moons back that claimed he simmed his progression and it proved that it worked. I asked for the sim. He got the rules from Uston's book. Single-deck, S17, DAS, Early Surrender. Where do I find this game?Positive expectation.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Yes, I understood it. Once again, you use empirical evidence as a substitute for logic, statistics and math. If you look at the vast sums made in the financial markets, it isn't with small firms.
Last edited by Norm; 09-05-2013 at 04:22 AM.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Mr BJ's latest line of argument definitively proves it: if there's ever a consensus on a subject, then people who don't believe that consensus MUST be right! It was the case in one specific situation, so obviously it must apply to everything, ever.
Honestly, the level of thinking on display here is depressing.
Outside of NYC, you're wrong. You will find most wise, grey haired individuals at small independent firms running their own business keeping 95% of what they make oppose to the others who get 40% and are then paid in trips and partnership.
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