Are participating in Blackjack tournaments a bad idea for Card Counters? Ive been pretty successful in my short career just not sure if i should enter in fear of being discovered.
I don't know a bunch about BJ tournament play -- but from what I do know -- it is quite different than actual (card-counting) blackjack. "Normal" blackjack you're only competing against the dealer over an 'infinite' period of time, doesn't matter how other players at your table do. In tournament BJ, sometimes you need to make the incorrect BS play to get more money on the table, since you are playing against these people. (ie: It's the last round, you need $200 more to advance to the next round. If you don't win another $200, then you're outta the tournament. If you win the $200, you advance. BS says to stay 14v6...but if you need that extra money, you'll double down 14v6.)
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
when I played the tournaments I played basic card counting strategies except once in a while I would put out more on last hand. I did well in the tournaments with basic card counting strategies assuming that in this way overall I would have the most chips.
I would let the others do the fancy stuff expecting that they would make mistakes and out do themselves.
other players were confused with my straight play, they did not understand my theory I think, they did not understand why I did not do the fancy stuff.
there are books explaining tournament strategies, somewhat complicated I think. some say they are helpful. I really don't know.
I think the basics are covered already. You are not playing against the dealer so counting is of little to no value. I know a very good tournament player that has lost when he should have won by basing moves on the count. The tournament is not a long run thing which is what counting is based on. It is a VERY short run thing. Position and knowing how to use various rule variations between tournaments is the most important thing. You are playing for swings or to maintain the status quo depending on where your chip stack lies relative to others. Making a move when your in position to bet last is the best way. At least betting after the people you are trying to pace or catch. You may be betting small hoping the dealer will wipe out everyones big bets or betting big to catch a leader that bet small and hope you both win. Covariance is a big factor in tournaments as those that don't bust their hands are fairly likely to win or lose the hand together depending on how the dealer faired. The odd playing decisions to fit your needs was covered. If you need to win when your opponent loses and you both have stiffs that you would stand on you would then have to hit on the last hand. Even that 16v6. The dealer busting causing you both to win does you no good. You MUST play for you beating a dealer pat hand allowing you to win while your opponent loses. So as you can see bet sizing becomes strategic when you are in position making that aspect of counting moot at least for some hands. Playing decisions must fit your needs when it comes down to the wire. Having the best chance of winning the hand does you no good if the only way to win it has you losing the tournament. A small likelihood of winning that hand is best if it gives you the best chance to win or move on.
To answer your question more directly, I wouldn't worry about your tournament play getting you red flagged. My friend who is a great tournament player was thrown out of a tournament for having been flagged as a counter. He had gotten in the Griffin book back in the day and could have been flagged by the specific casino chain history. Anyway partially into the tournament he got DQ'ed for being a professional card counter. I have never heard of this happening other than this instance and he plays in tournaments regularly. The tournament officials insisted it wouldn't be fair to the other invited tournament players if they allowed a professional to play. Some of the best tournaments are by invite only. Bigger prizes and a smaller field to compete against. I had some regular tournament pros say there have never been a tournament with a 6 figure payout. They exist but are by invite only. The benefits of playing rated are not just free play, free food and lodging.
Last edited by Three; 12-24-2013 at 06:02 AM.
Counting is habitual if you are a CCer so you don't stop in tourneys. Granted, the edge gained is very minimal but many events are won by a difference of $2.50 so I put the small edge to use. I do use smaller bet ramps in tournaments because your effective BR is what's in front of you (you can't buy any more chips) and you're eliminated if it's gone.
Most I've won in a tourney is 30k (Frontier). A good friend of mine won 100k on two separate occasions (Stardust and Riviera) and another acquaintance won a million dollars at the old Las Vegas Hilton. Sadly, he committed suicide a few years later.
my theory was that thee is a long run on tournaments. the more tournaments you play and the closer to card counting you play then the more money and chips you will have. this bias of more chips will show up on individual tournament sessions.
also what about considering that by deviating from card counting you will be losing much in the play and this will harm you bankroll. the loses of deviated play can add up substantially over many tournaments, if you don't come into the money. also the stress factor, how sure can you be that deviations from card counting are advantageous overall when taking into consideration the wins of prize money.
I had good results with this theory. played some 25 tournaments and came in the money 9 time with little damage to my br.
my theory is a minority view. simulations might be helpful.
I don't think any kind of long term approach to tournaments can be used. Especially so, if you're a tournament junkie because the formats are never the same and neither are the competitors at all the different venues. More important than the count are things like how your BR compares to opponents and last hand bet position.
If it's the last hand and the only way you can advance is by doubling down your hard twenty (because you don't have the required equal amount for splitting) you do it and pray for an Ace. The only exception to that would be in a "live money" event meaning you would lose real dollars if not catching an Ace.
I play a lot of tournaments and firmly believe that counting is far down the list when it comes to important things to be aware of at the table. If you have played a few tournaments, then you will know that a proper strategic bet made from good position during the final few hands can add tens of percentage points to your chances of success, before the cards are even dealt. Once the cards are dealt, knowing that you need to engineer or prevent a swing or that you need to win multiple bets by doubling or splitting (and knowing which is better) in order to be successful can add several more percentage points to your chances of success.
In order to make these critical bets and plays, you need to be able to track the bankrolls of up to 6 opponents, sometimes down to single chip accuracy and adjust them as they win/lose. In my opinion that is your number one priority at the table. Number two is getting a read on the betting tendencies of your opponents. This is especially important if you must bet/act before them on the critical hand(s).
The count has very little effect on whether these bets and plays will be successful, because the count has very little effect on the win/lose/push/swing rates of these hands. Also, adding a few extra chips to your stack during the early hands, is of little value if your opponents can catch you with a high chance of success with a max bet or by using a progression. You may also never see a favourable count during a tournament round of 21-30 hands. Finally what good is your big bet with a high count if I have you covered high and low (win or lose)?
Now, I'm sure that there are many here who can manage all of the things I have mentioned above and still maintain the count. For some, counting is just that automatic. If so, then by all means use that information as you see fit. However, if you are maintaining the count as your first priority and using it as the first factor in making your betting and playing decisions, then all I can say is "Welcome to my Table"!
Last edited by Gronbog; 12-24-2013 at 08:54 AM.
what I am trying to say is that there is a tendency to over do the deviation plays.
when the players do wild plays near the end of the session if is very difficult to
sort it out and know how to deviate.
I am suggesting keep it as simple as possible and do the deviation only on the
very last hand of the session.
let the other players go wild the last 5 hands or so. I will deviate only on the last hand,
with rare exceptions. and my deviation will be simple that I can easily understand.
I suppose I take my approach because I don't have the agility to make complicated deviation plays and correlations.
This tendency to "go wild" is quite common from players who have played enough tournaments to have noticed the unusual plays, but not enough to know why these plays are being made. There is a regular event near me where just about every player in contention will double on the final hand, whether they need to or not. They do it because the tournament-ploppy gossip (yes, there are tournament ploppies!) says that you're supposed to do this. This is very powerful information for me and is part of what I was referring to when I talked about getting a read on your opponents. Knowing that a player will do this can actually make me a strong favourite as opposed to being a massive underdog when trailing on the final hand. This information is orders of magnitude more valuable than knowing what the count is.
As for when to deviate, I deviate whenever it increases the chances of succeeding in my goal for that hand. Generally, the goal a given hand becomes more clear and immediate as the end of the round draws near, but there are times, even early in the round, when I may have a goal to accomplish on a given hand.
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