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Thread: Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

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  1. #1
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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    my friend: you said some of the bets you made the line moved in your favor.j..
    nah...c'mon, man...he knew on July 4th that:
    • Wentz wouldn't be cleared to start
    • Nate Petermen (mr 5 int 1st game) would start week 1
    • Le'veon Bell would hold out this year - at least week 1
    • Chicago would make a blockbuster trade for Mack


    he/she is just clairvoyant...seems reasonable to me...lmao

    looks like you got a 'free pass' on your lines this week....have you bet any games for next week/future yet?

    Sharky

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    nah...c'mon, man...he knew on July 4th that:
    • Wentz wouldn't be cleared to start
    • Nate Petermen (mr 5 int 1st game) would start week 1
    • Le'veon Bell would hold out this year - at least week 1
    • Chicago would make a blockbuster trade for Mack


    he/she is just clairvoyant...seems reasonable to me...lmao

    looks like you got a 'free pass' on your lines this week....have you bet any games for next week/future yet?

    Sharky
    The Mack trade and Bell being out was pure positive variance for me. I doubt Mack plays more than 20 snaps Sunday night as he has been holding out. And as good as Bell is, most realize that RB is the most easily replaceable position in the NFL. As for Wentz, there was a pretty good chance he wouldn't be ready for week 1. He had his surgery in December. ACL surgery, not a little pinky.

    The picks were either about teams I felt that would improve (Cleveland, Chicago, Denver) or teams I for which I see regression (Buffalo, Seattle and Philly).

    I will most likely pass week 2 completely and only tread mildly in week 3 before getting ready to fire from that point on. Too much overreaction and temptation to overreact for week 2. That goes for college or the NFL.

    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.
    Your bets don't have to be equal. You can still win on one side and lose on the other while having a nice middle where you win both bets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Your bets don't have to be equal. You can still win on one side and lose on the other while having a nice middle where you win both bets.
    True, but in this case I will make them equal. You just don't get that many chances to get a middle with BOTH 3 and 4. This is sports betting basic strategy. While I liked Atlanta, a Philly win wouldn't shock me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleDownSoft21 View Post
    Now, I pretty much have no choice but to now take Philly and shoot for the middle.
    This year I will not bet for Philly at all. You have to really know that team because the quarterback Nick Foles could play at a low level and at a high level sometimes. But what I see so far is Philly is playing at a very low level in the Pre-Season so I would take that into consideration before I place my bets.


    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    This year I will not bet for Philly at all. You have to really know that team because the quarterback Nick Foles could play at a low level and at a high level sometimes. But what I see so far is Philly is playing at a very low level in the Pre-Season so I would take that into consideration before I place my bets.


    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!
    But a middling situation where one can win with an outcome of Philly winning by 3 or 4 is too good to pass up. This is like a high count and splitting 10s against the dealer's 6. Too much EV.

    Philly + 1 (Heritage) for the middle to go with the Atlanta +4.5 (Silver Legacy)

    Even I, as one who liked Atlanta originally, thinks this line move is overdone. The linemakers aren't off by THAT much very often.

  7. #7
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    This is a revenge game from the playoffs. Take Atlanta. Revenge games are a big angle play.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!
    Philly is a very hostile environment for opposing fans. Seriously you could get hurt very bad or worse. Just be like a spy and blend in. If you inadvertently cheer say you have that guy on your fantasy football team but act like you are rooting for the Eagles. Think of it like your AP act in a casino. You want to have your enjoyment and get out unscathed.

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