Prize Car: playing 2 spots vs 1

[Prize Car]

I understand what you mean now. I didn't multiply the new win rate by 0.73. That was the problem, and thanks for finding it!

So the way I had my sim set up previously, it was placing 2 bets where before there was only 1, but for the full amount, not the 0.73x. Thank you for that. It took you and CVCX to slap me a couple of times in the face before I figured things out.

I do have one other point. That is, if the dealer is fast or slow. I will simulate this in CVCX (which precisely agrees with the chart on Page 24 of BJA3, by the way), and let you know....

Prize

P.S. Even if I sim this, I don't think it would be accurate. We'd have to actually go to casinos and categorize slow and fast dealers to get some real data, rather than me loosely approximate dealer speeds.

[Prize Car]

Here are the results of the sims. This is also with a 6 Deck, same rules as before. It appears that the 7n + 5 figure from PBJ can be altered to reflect dealer speed. If the dealer is fast, he would be able to reduce the initial 12 seconds (heads-up) from maybe 12 to 9 or even faster, but what component of that is dealer, and what component is due to our average AP's speed? If you assume that a fast dealer will reduce the 7 to maybe 5, and the 5 to maybe a 3, then that leaves us with 5n + 3, which is 8 seconds. This even underscores SW's comment that some fast dealer can reach 500 hands/hr, as 6 seconds plugged into my equation is 436 hands/hr, but if you reduce the shuffle time from 100 sec to less, then there's your 500 hands/hr figure.

But if you assume you don't take long to make decisions, and the dealer's fast, that can subtract an additional 1 from the player component. So now we have:

4n + 3, or 7 seconds per round for a fast dealer, is for one spot. I'm going to use 7 seconds for this equation. For two spots, you can subtract another seconds since we're the same person. That would be 4(2) + 3 - 1, or 10 seconds. Let's plug that into our *correct* equation using the 0.73 multiplier:

earnings/hr 389.19 393.97
profit 100.00% 101.20%

This is corroborated by CVCX:

earnings/hr 311.88 307.21
profit 100.00% 98.48%

So both my excel sim and CVCX are close to each other (within 3%). So with a fast dealer, it's a wash. Now let's see what happens with a slow dealer....

Let's take the 7n + 5 number and modify it accordingly. If the dealer's slow, the "5" will definitely be slower, but he'll also react slower thereby increasing the "7" as well. So let's assume 7 for the 5, and for the 7n, let's add one second, and only reduce the total by half a second because we're the same player playing 2 spots. So that gives us

8n + 7 for 1 spot, and
8n + 7 - 0.5 for 2 spots

1 spot = 15 sec
2 spots = 22.5 sec

earnings/hr 208.70 203.13
profit 100.00% 97.33%

CVCX gives us:

167.57
158.74

difference: 94.4%

So very similar.

In this case, it's slightly better to play 1 hand.

Now let's break up the components of that equation and maximize for the 7n, then later maximize for the 5, and see what is better.

for the 7n + 5, let's say it changes to 5n + 7. So the dealer takes more time to do stuff. That would be 12 seconds. For 2 spots, 5n + 7 is 17, minus 1 is 16.

1 spot, 2 spots: 252.63 271.28

100.00% 107.38%

So it's over 7% more profitable if the dealer is slow with everything except you make a quick decision.

For the opposite, 7n + 5 turning into 9n + 3, you get 12 for 1 spot of course, and for 2 spots you get 21 sec.

1 spot, 2 spots: 252.63 215.63

100.00% 85.35%

This means playing 1 spot is much (almost 15%) more valuable.

So the bottom line is, when playing solo (heads-up):

1. If the dealer's fast, it's a wash.
2. If the dealer's slow, play 2 spots.
3. If the dealer's fast but takes more time with your hand, like confirming things like hard 19, etc., then play 1 spot.
4. If the dealer's fast with your decisions but regular to slow with his hand or whatever else, play 2 spots.

Any comments on this are appreciated.

Prize

[Don Schlesinger]

> So the bottom line is, when playing solo (heads-up):

> 1. If the dealer's fast, it's a wash.
> 2. If the dealer's slow, play 2 spots.
> 3. If the dealer's fast but takes more time with your
> hand, like confirming things like hard 19, etc., then
> play 1 spot.
> 4. If the dealer's fast with your decisions but
> regular to slow with his hand or whatever else, play 2
> spots.

> Any comments on this are appreciated.

A few:

1. Instead of just writing equations and numbers of seconds on a piece of paper, have you actually attempted to replicate the speeds that you are advocating, by dealing and/or playing out the hands on a table? I think you will find that, for the most part, your "fast" numbers simply are not realistic. Nonetheless, counters need to play as much as possible with fast dealers, so, for me, it is, and always has been, a wash to play two hands heads-up, and I've been saying it for 28 years. (Not everyone has been listening for 28 years, however! :-))

2. "If the dealer is slow," then who in his right mind would choose that table? I've seen dealers who, towards the end of their shifts, deal like zombies. Frankly, I've always been surprised that the casinos tolerate it. Some elderly men dealers at Caesars were/are notorious for this. I would die before sitting down at such a table. Playing there would drive me out of my mind.

3. You never get the same dealer for an hour straight, so, no matter what you determine at the start of the hour, the situation is going to change before the hour is over.

Don

[Prize Car]

good points.

Yes, I've tried to simulate dealer speed, but it's not easy, because for every set of 20's you wave off, you also get some crazy DAS resplit hand that takes an entire minute and half your money's literally on the table. So it's hard to figure out the true average without actually taking some live data.

Thank you for your comments.

I will immediately go back to playing 1 spot heads-up. ;-)

[Don Schlesinger]

> I will immediately go back to playing 1 spot heads-up.
> ;-)

The point is, it simply doesn't matter. If, once another player joins, you're going to play two, as you should, then you may just as well play two all the time, including alone -- so long as you understand that, for heads-up, you don't gain anything.

Don

[21forme]

I like playing 2 spots because two medium bets seem to cause less attention with the pit than one big one - for example, 2 x 300 v. 1 x 500. I know it shouldn't matter, but it does. Another example - put out a big stack of greens, no alerts. Put out one black, dealer screams "black action." Go figure!

[Don Schlesinger]

> I like playing 2 spots because two medium bets seem to
> cause less attention with the pit than one big one -
> for example, 2 x 300 v. 1 x 500. I know it shouldn't
> matter, but it does. Another example - put out a big
> stack of greens, no alerts. Put out one black, dealer
> screams "black action." Go figure!

I agree with both of your points.

Don