HOLLYWOOD: Question for Don?

[HOLLYWOOD]

Hi Don:

I just need you to help me with something in BJ ATTACK.

At the end of a shoe, I have a big time count in my favor and i'm at my maximum bet. It is now the last hand and I lose it.

First question:

Do you still put your maximum bet out there for the first hand of the new shoe?

second question:

If I win that last hand at my max bet, I always make a big bet at the top of the next shoe.

But, if I lose that bet Don, i usually go back to my single unit bet and say something like, "looks like that run is over". Is that correct or should I be betting a few more hands with more money out there.

I'm just trying to not be conspicuous. You know with those black chips the assholes watch very closly.

What's your take?

Hollywood

[Don Schlesinger]

> Do you still put your maximum bet out there
> for the first hand of the new shoe?

No, I usually cut it in half, at least, or I leave for a new table.

> second question:

> If I win that last hand at my max bet, I
> always make a big bet at the top of the next
> shoe.

> But, if I lose that bet Don, i usually go
> back to my single unit bet and say something
> like, "looks like that run is
> over". Is that correct or should I be
> betting a few more hands with more money out
> there.

What you do is fine. Losing permits you to "start over again."

> I'm just trying to not be conspicuous. You
> know with those black chips the assholes
> watch very closly.

> What's your take?

You're OK. Also, I pull back all the chips, as if to count what I've won/lost. Then, you can come out with a new bet that isn't the same as the last one.

Don

[Norm Wattenberger]

I agree with Don's answer (doesn't always happen. But makes me nervous when I don't)

I generally leave in this circumstance. At least change tables. In a large casino, changing tables isn't that odd since shuffling a shoe takes time and many gamblers are impatient. If I say anything, it's something like 'you beat me.' This also excuses no tip. (Well, not in the mind of the dealer.) Upon changing tables, it is natural to lower your bet. If I remain at the same table, I will always lower my bet. How much is based upon your comfort level at that moment. There is a lot of time during the shuffle. You can even play with your bet a bit. One way is to put up your minimum bet. And after a pause, double it. This is not a natural counter move - it looks like a gambler. But is no where near as expensive as retaining max bet.

BJStats

[Night Train]

> I'm just trying to not be conspicuous. You
> know with those black chips the assholes
> watch very closly.

A lot depends on what previously occurred on your play. If this is your first major bet jump, it wouldn't give them enough info to get a read on your talent. If they've seen a good deal of your play, then it might be a good idea to give up a little on cover moves like the one you mention.

Hope this is helpful.

Regards,
Rick

[scobee 1]

I have just a couple of additional comments about which bet to bring with a new shoe. One thing I have seen in my area is that there is a a kind of baccarat approach to betting that offers me a chance to vary bets without parlay. Many asians play both bac and blackjack here, so there is some cross-pollination to their approaches playing a losing game. When the people at your table are jumping their bets from $25-$500 it gives you opportunities you might not have otherwise.

I try to make my opening bet unpredictable as a matter of policy. I try to capture two boxes when I play and may start with two bets or one. If I have just won a couple of maximum bets at the end of a shoe, I protect my winnings by dropping down. Sometimes to units, sometimes to double units. If I have lost, at any time, it is a 'good reason' to drop my betting level to the floor. Unless of course I don't. ;-)

I never come off the top with a maximum bet. Remember you do not have an edge until the true count reaches +1 in most games, so you would be placing your big bet during a negative EV round. If your bank can withstand the variance, you can use Stricker's oppositional betting strategies to confuse the enemy. I have found that strict guidelines in your betting ramp only alert the pit that you are a disciplined player....something that smells like 'skilled' to those who like to catch winninng players and toss them. 'Bet with your head and not over it" is just one of those stupid enticements for the uninformed. The casinos do not like winners, and they certainly do not like to gamble. Check the ploppies around you for clues on how to vary your bets. The easier it is for them to categorize you, the easier it is to get away with a more advantageous spread.

Just my two cents worth. Nice to see Don and Night Train's responses on this topic, too.

[scobee 1]

> I generally leave in this circumstance. At
> least change tables. In a large casino,
> changing tables isn't that odd since
> shuffling a shoe takes time and many
> gamblers are impatient. If I say anything,
> it's something like 'you beat me.' This also
> excuses no tip. (Well, not in the mind of
> the dealer.) Upon changing tables, it is
> natural to lower your bet. If I remain at
> the same table, I will always lower my
> bet. How much is based upon your comfort
> level at that moment. There is a lot of time
> during the shuffle. You can even play with
> your bet a bit. One way is to put up your
> minimum bet. And after a pause, double it.
> This is not a natural counter move - it
> looks like a gambler. But is no where near
> as expensive as retaining max bet.

I agree with Norm here. Unfortunatelely, sometimes you have only one or two tables that fit your profile. During the shuffle I play with my chips and sort them, then make them into a pile of garbage. I always look for opportunities to sneak a few chips into my pocket. I may put out some chips, draw them back, rethink my bet, and then put something else out. I will discuss the 'trend' of the dealer's luck in the beginning of the shoe with the other players. If I have just had a climax shoe, I may go for a walk if I think I can still play at this table, and return on the following shoe. I like to break up my time on observation if it is possible that the eye has been alerted. If I have just had two critters watch my play during a positive flux where my bets have become huge, I will probably take my chips and head for the cage. If they throw a new dealer at me, that is always a good time to evaluate my bet in a 'superstitious' manner, and of course you wouldn't have to give him a tip if you were leaving.

Of course in a crowded casino with many tables, like MGM, you can play with impunity and move from one pit to another. Cover betting becomes less of a consideration, since each time you sit down you are considered a new player. But if you take a seat in a new pit and they greet you with, "We already have you down, Mr. Scobee." as you offer your players card, then maybe it is time to leave. Or not. I will also suggest that you can always pocket chips as you leave one table for another to help disguise your win. Some players I know 'rainbow' their chips to help confuse surveillance. It helps to read the personalities of the critters you are trying to fool so you can give them what they want to see and so dispatch their attention.

Of course, in those heads-up games you have to be more vigilant.

[Don Schlesinger]

Excellent post; I agree with all your observations.

Don