Is their a formula where i can work out my chances of losing a certain amount of money,flatbetting a certain amount of bets at a certain game just using Basic strategy?
Such as what is the chance of losing 100$,flatbetting 2$,have to wager say 2000$ at 2D,NDAS,S17,ENHC,D9,10,11.
Use the tables at the below link.
> Is their a formula where i can work out my
> chances of losing a certain amount of
> money,flatbetting a certain amount of bets
> at a certain game just using Basic strategy?
> Such as what is the chance of losing
> 100$,flatbetting 2$,have to wager say 2000$
> at 2D,NDAS,S17,ENHC,D9,10,11.
Your flat-betting BS disadvantage is about 0.54% or so. Let's call it an even one-half of one percent (0.50%), to make the numbers simple.
So, your per-hand EV, is -0.50%, and the standard deviation for a hand (since doubling is somewhat restricted) is about 1.12 units.
If you make 1,000 $2 wagers ($2,000 total wager), your expectation is to lose 0.50% of $2,000, or $10. The SD is $2 x sqrt 1,000 = $63.25.
So, to lose $100 means to lose $90 more than your EV, or to experience a 90/63.25 = 1.42-SD event. This happens 7.8% of the time (you need to look up the value in a normal distribution cumulative density table), or about once in every 13 attempts.
So, such a loss would not be "rare," but you'd be somewhat "unlucky" to have incurred it.
Don
> So, to lose $100 means to lose $90 more than
> your EV, or to experience a 90/63.25 =
> 1.42-SD event. This happens 7.8% of the time
> (you need to look up the value in a normal
> distribution cumulative density table), or
> about once in every 13 attempts.
> So, such a loss would not be
> "rare," but you'd be somewhat
> "unlucky" to have incurred it.
> Don
Thanks just what i needed,actually 7.8% is a lot bigger than i thought it would be.
So, to lose $100 means to lose $90 more than your EV, or to experience a 90/63.25 = 1.42-SD event. This happens 7.8% of the time (you need to look up the value in a normal distribution cumulative density table), or about once in every 13 attempts.
Ok so to win 100 would i divide 110 (110 more than i expect) by 63.25.
110/63.25= 1.73 -SD.
So, your per-hand EV, is -0.50%, and the standard deviation for a hand (since doubling is somewhat restricted) is about 1.12 units.
Why isnt the 1.12 units used in the calculation.
> Ok so to
> win 100 would i divide 110 (110 more than i
> expect) by 63.25.
> 110/63.25= 1.73 -SD.
Yes, exactly!
> So, your per-hand EV, is -0.50%, and the
> standard deviation for a hand (since
> doubling is somewhat restricted) is about
> 1.12 units. Why isnt the 1.12 units used in
> the calculation.
Oh, shit! You're right. I carelessly forgot that!
So, SD is even larger still, and the event is even more likely. SD is now $2 x 1.12 x sqrt of 1,000 = $70.84, making the first loss a 90/70.84 = 1.27-SD event, with probability 10.2%!!
Sorry for the error. I rarely do things like that. Glad you caught it.
Don
> Oh, shit! You're right. I carelessly forgot
> that!
> So, SD is even larger still, and the event
> is even more likely. SD is now $2 x 1.12 x
> sqrt of 1,000 = $70.84, making the first
> loss a 90/70.84 = 1.27-SD event, with
> probability 10.2%!!
Ok this is the chance of losing 100$.but what if you have started off with exactly 100 as your BR,is 10.2% still your chance of ruin or will it now be higher?
thanks
> Ok this is the chance of losing 100$.but
> what if you have started off with exactly
> 100 as your BR,is 10.2% still your chance of
> ruin or will it now be higher?
It will be higher, and can be as much as double that percentage, or more.
Clearly, the 10.2% assumes that, along the way, if you were to lose the $100, someone would come along and lend you enough money to get you through to the end of your stipulated playing time. If that isn't the case, then, obviously, there will be times when you're down the $100 before the end of the period, and, therefore, you're out of action right then and there.
Read about the "premature bumping into the barrier syndrome" in BJA.
Don
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