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Virtue: Puzzle and Question
This situation happened to me awhile back but it's an interesting puzzle. I'd also appreciate any commentary or advice on handling similar situations.
Dealer has an Ace up, then fumbles the hole card so that the table can see that he has an 8, 9, or 10. I didn't take insurance. What kinds of hands must I have? The puzzle's not that difficult but it's intriguing.
I didn't really know what other kinds of hands would also decline insurance, but would appreciate any thoughts, as well as what to do if let's say the dealer has a 9 or 10, or 50% chance of blackjack.
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Cacarulo: Re: Puzzle and Question
> Dealer has an Ace up, then fumbles the hole
> card so that the table can see that he has
> an 8, 9, or 10. I didn't take insurance.
> What kinds of hands must I have? The
> puzzle's not that difficult but it's
> intriguing.
I don't know if I get your question. When the dealer fumbles the hole card, are you saying that that card could be an 8, 9 or a 10 but not a face card?
If this is the case then you will buy insurance if:
Ev = P(T)*1+(-0.5)*P(NT) > 0
P(T) = 1/3
P(NT) = 2/3
Ev = 1/3*1+(-0.5)*2/3 = 0 (don't buy)
if you don't know whether you see a 9 or a 10 then:
P(T) =1/2
P(NT) =1/2
Ev = 1/2*1+(-0.5)*1/2 = 1/4 (buy)
Hope this helps.
Sincerely,
Cacarulo
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Virture: Clarification: 10 but not K, Q, J *NM*
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Virtue: My mistake
Sorry, I messed up the math initially.
Still, are there any hands that I would or would not insure if I had a borderline insurance decision? Howabout for a 50% chance of getting insurance correct?
Thanks
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Cacarulo: Re: My mistake
> Sorry, I messed up the math initially.
> Still, are there any hands that I would or
> would not insure if I had a borderline
> insurance decision? Howabout for a 50%
> chance of getting insurance correct?
I think I've already answered your question. Please, read my previous post again.
Am I missing something?
Sincerely,
Cacarulo
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