JOHN HUSTLER: Shocking Statistics!!!!

[kasey]

If there are so few counters, do they back people off just for being lucky and winning?

> A friend of mine lives in Las Vegas and
> plays three nights a week, about a total of
> 15 hours. He's been there for over two years
> and just told me recently that he has never
> once had a counter at his table!

> Don

[Coug Fan]

I have posted before about being backed off after betting 4 hands at a SD table the first time I ever set foot in a notorious Vegas sweatshop. Unless they have ESP, or they were the ONLY recipient of a flyer on me, this was an absolutely crazy decision. Sure I increased my bet significantly right before the shuffle, but it was only 4 hands. I have heard from others who have been backed off while flat betting, or even upon placing their first bet at a table. A local casino went on a crack down a while back and I personally know of 4 people who were backed off who clearly were not AP's. 3 of them were semi-competent BS players, but that was it.

Casino managers are extremely over paranoid of counters. Based on my limited observations, they seem to be willing to err on the side of backing off 10 non-counters who have an average negative EV of 1% or more, rather than letting one counter with a 2% EV go undetected. This is clearly a mistake.

Its too bad this isn't poker where the casino's mistakes result in a gain for our side. In this case, everyone loses. Actually, the one winner is the ploppy who is backed off for no reason. Maybe the experience makes him dislike casino gambling enough to reduce the amount of time spent in casinos.

[frankied]

> A friend of mine lives in Las Vegas and
> plays three nights a week, about a total of
> 15 hours. He's been there for over two years
> and just told me recently that he has never
> once had a counter at his table!

> Don

OK gents, I stand corrected. Not sure why I picked that 1% number, as personally I have never so much as seen another backcounter (my main strategy) in almost a year of recreational playing. I just thought that there must be others that have figured this out.. It's not that hard a skill to master...It puzzles me that almost everyone just throws their money away playing BS or much worse. This year I started to keep careful track of my own results... personally I have been on the casino floor for 54 hours in 17 outings this year, with a net results of +$5,155 (well, it's Canadian $), or $95 tax free per hour. I know, I will eventually have a nasty series of losing sessions (but it hasn't happened yet).
FD.

[ZOD]

I agree that the numbers bear out the fact that the casinos are hurting themselves with the "false positives." It's not just the unsuspecting barred ploppy that refuses to return; it's also every ploppy within two tables that witnesses the event. Talk about negative ev!

Of course, in a perfect world, casinos would compete with each other for blackjack supremacy by offering mathematically better games. They would market their product by securing paid endorsements from professional players. (Can't you see your name on the marquee?) Casino security would be concerned with actual cheats and thieves, not lucky winners or lone counters who have no chance of denting the house bank.

Then, ploppies would flock to the "beatable" blackjack games and the casino's coffers would fill and those smart enough to play with a little edge would take home a little bit more. Sigh...

Unfortunately, it took me ninety-two words to describe the perfect world. The casino marketing manager can do it in two: more slots.

Best...

ZOD

[frankkied]

OK, I humbly stand corrected... The 1% 'winning/advantage players' was my guess, my faith in human intelligence made it hard to conceive that more than 99% of players could be pathetically throwing their money away playing BS or worse. But I admit that in about a year of recreational play I have not even spotted so much as another backcounter.. and since that is what I do, I think I would spot them if they were there. Then again I guess if did get popular, then the conditions would be made even worse than they are today, e.g. no mid-shoe entry, less penetration, more decks, etc.
Using mainly a backcounting strategy has worked for me for 8 deck games in average conditions (wonging in at TC 1.5, not actually counting when playing, spreading only 2-1 based on 'feel' for the count, and always playing to end of shoe). In 35 outings averaging 3 hours, playing green chips, I am +$8500 (well, Canadian $) according to my little spreadsheet. Something like $85 tax-free per hour for participating in this 'hobby'. Yes, I know, I will eventually have a string of nasty losses that will set me back, but I am ready for that (I think).
Frankied

[Sidewinder]

Assuming that this report is correct and is what Griffin is really claiming, we are also making the assumption that these really are advantage players. Since Griffin lumps us in with muckers, cheats, bet-cappers, and others we can't tell just who they may have identified. Hit 'em hard! The Side

[Coug Fan]

> ..... It's not that hard a skill to
> master...

I completely agree with this part. The skill part is easy. Most people do not have the necessary patience and discipline, IMHO. Most people that I have met are too interested in action and are used to looking at time in casinos as "entertainment".

[sam]

Bankroll is the missing ingredient in most AP's recipe for success. Patience and discipline will only work if one has enough cash to make patience and discipline factors. Gotta have enough cash to make the AP grind work.

> I completely agree with this part. The skill
> part is easy. Most people do not have the
> necessary patience and discipline, IMHO.
> Most people that I have met are too
> interested in action and are used to looking
> at time in casinos as
> "entertainment".

[Coug Fan]

> Bankroll is the missing ingredient in most
> AP's recipe for success. Patience and
> discipline will only work if one has enough
> cash to make patience and discipline
> factors. Gotta have enough cash to make the
> AP grind work.

I would classify waiting until you have a sufficient bankroll and/or playing within acceptable ROR parameters for a small BR as part of patience and discipline, but otherwise, no argument here.