Russell Furney: Not enough advantage

[Russell Furney]

I have been playing blackjack using the hi-lo count and just changing my bet based on the count vs. the penetration and sticking to basic strategy regardless of the count, but I'm having more losing sessions than winning. I'm not skilled enough to deviate from basic strategy based on the count, is it necessary for me to learn this before I continue to play, or what game/rule variation would be best for my strategy of play?

I have been playing either a 6D S17 DA2 DAS SP3 SPA1 or a 2D H17 DA2 DAS SP3 SPA1.

I win or lose about every other session. The problem is that I win about 50% of my session roll and leave when the count goes negative or shuffle. But when I lose, I lose the entire session roll of 20 units, making the losses exceed the wins. I need more consistent winning sessions to cover my losing session.

How can gain a better advantage?

Russell

[Parker]

> I have been playing blackjack using the
> hi-lo count and just changing my bet based
> on the count vs. the penetration and
> sticking to basic strategy regardless of the
> count, but I'm having more losing sessions
> than winning. I'm not skilled enough to
> deviate from basic strategy based on the
> count, is it necessary for me to learn this
> before I continue to play, or what game/rule
> variation would be best for my strategy of
> play?

> I have been playing either a 6D S17 DA2 DAS
> SP3 SPA1 or a 2D H17 DA2 DAS SP3 SPA1.

> I win or lose about every other session. The
> problem is that I win about 50% of my
> session roll and leave when the count goes
> negative or shuffle. But when I lose, I lose
> the entire session roll of 20 units, making
> the losses exceed the wins. I need more
> consistent winning sessions to cover my
> losing session.

> How can gain a better advantage?

For starters, stop thinking in terms of session wins and losses. The cards do not know when your session begins or ends, or whether you are winning or losing. The important statistic is how much money you have won or lost overall.

In addition, you cannot judge the effectiveness of a system by the results of a few sessions. You may be playing a winning game but merely experiencing negative deviation. Some might call it "bad luck."

However, in order to know if you are playing a winning game, we need more information. You left out two extremely important details:

1. What is the penetration for each game?

2. What sort of bet spread are you using for each game?

With this information we can tell you if you are indeed playing a winning game.

You can definitely improve your game by using strategy variations. You do not have to learn a large number at once. For example, start by learing the correct insurance index, and the indices for 16 vs 10 and 15 vs 10. After you get comfortable using those, add a few more.

[Russell Furney]

> For starters, stop thinking in terms of
> session wins and losses. The cards do not
> know when your session begins or ends, or
> whether you are winning or losing. The
> important statistic is how much money you
> have won or lost overall.

> In addition, you cannot judge the
> effectiveness of a system by the results of
> a few sessions. You may be playing a winning
> game but merely experiencing negative
> deviation. Some might call it "bad
> luck."

> However, in order to know if you are playing
> a winning game, we need more information.
> You left out two extremely important
> details:

> 1. What is the penetration for each game?

> 2. What sort of bet spread are you using for
> each game?

> With this information we can tell you if you
> are indeed playing a winning game.

> You can definitely improve your game by
> using strategy variations. You do not have
> to learn a large number at once. For
> example, start by learing the correct
> insurance index, and the indices for 16 vs
> 10 and 15 vs 10. After you get comfortable
> using those, add a few more.

I try to go for great penetration, but it seems no matter where I go, I get no more than 50%. I use trackjack and still I get to a casino posted on trackjack with around 70% penetration, and they slice the shuffle card right down the middle. I live in Las Vegas, where should I be going for the best double deck game? Also, is there an advantage to what time of day I play, for instance when I can play by myself or less than two other players?

My bet spread is typically 1-3 units. Betting 2 units when the count is positive 3 or more and 3 units when the count is +5 or more and close to shuffle.

Finally, I have been learning from the classic Lawrence Revere, "Playing Blackjack As A Business," is this a sufficient resource for learning the strategy variations, or do you prefer something else?

Russell

[Parker]

> I try to go for great penetration, but it
> seems no matter where I go, I get no more
> than 50%. I use trackjack and still I get to
> a casino posted on trackjack with around 70%
> penetration, and they slice the shuffle card
> right down the middle. I live in Las Vegas,
> where should I be going for the best double
> deck game? Also, is there an advantage to
> what time of day I play, for instance when I
> can play by myself or less than two other
> players?

Well the good news is that you live in Las Vegas, so you have the time to hunt down the good games, rather than trying to find them when you're only in town for 3 or 4 days.

50% pen on a H17 DD game with no surrender is borderline unplayable. Just be aware that conditions vary on a day-to-day basis. In addition, they also vary by shift and by individual dealer.

It does seem to be true that overall conditions have been deteriorating in Las Vegas as of late, but there are still playable games out there. You just have to do the legwork to find them. I personally will not play any DD game with H17 and no surrender if pen is less than 60%.

If you want to be sure, literally count the cards as they are dealt. If you don't see 63 or more cards before the cut card comes out, keep looking.

Don't be afraid to check out the locals joints. Some of the best games can often be found in out of the way places.

> My bet spread is typically 1-3 units.
> Betting 2 units when the count is positive 3
> or more and 3 units when the count is +5 or
> more and close to shuffle.

Bad news: You're not playing a winning game. With no strategy deviations, you're relying entirely on bet spread for your edge. With 50% pen you will not see many high counts, so when you do, you need to spread a lot more than 1-3.

In addition, your spread is too conservative. Optimally, you should go right to 3 units at +1. At the minimum, go to 2 units at +1 and 3 units at +2.

A realistic spread would be 1-8, going to 3 units at +2, 7 units at +3 and 8 units at +4 or above.

With this spread, 60% pen, the 18 indices discussed below, and a $10 unit, you're looking at a win rate of around $13.50/hour.

> Finally, I have been learning from the
> classic Lawrence Revere, "Playing
> Blackjack As A Business," is this a
> sufficient resource for learning the
> strategy variations, or do you prefer
> something else?

Revere's book is indeed a classic, but it is badly dated. Revere makes no differentiation between index numbers because he didn't know any better. It would be many years later before Don Schlesinger would discover that about 80% of the gain from strategy variations could be obtained with only 18 indexes.

I have included a link to a chart of these 18 indexes. They are listed in descending order of importance, that is, learn those at the top of the chart first. The chart says 4 deck, but they will work just fine for double deck (or six deck, for that matter).

For a detailed analysis of these indexes (and much, much more), pick up a copy of Blackjack Attack, 2nd Edition, by Don Schlesinger.

A better reference on the Hi-lo count than Revere's book is Professional Blackjack, by Stanford Wong.

Both books may be ordered from our online catalog.

Illustrious 18

[Sun Runner]

"Revere's book is indeed a classic, but it is badly dated. Revere makes no differentiation between index numbers because he didn't know any better." -Parker

You are the second person I have heard recently that seems to be using Revere's book as the cornerstone for their personal school of BJ.

Don't.

Parker said it earlier, and when I read his response I wondered what someone like you might think, so I'm saying it again, hoepfully more clearly.

Don't do it.

Put the book down and step away from the table.

As was mentioned, it is a classic, a good book to have and have read for a lot of reasons, but I wouldn't commit to memory much of anything in it.

Get Wong's book on HiLo; look around the web and get the correct BS for the game(s) you play (blackjackinfo.com is a start if nothing else); learn the I18 indexes Parker linked you up with.

Revere's book is one I'm glad I own and have read. But not, as it turned out, to learn how to play BJ in 2004.

Good luck.

[Russell Furney]

> "Revere's book is indeed a classic, but
> it is badly dated. Revere makes no
> differentiation between index numbers
> because he didn't know any better."
> -Parker

> You are the second person I have heard
> recently that seems to be using Revere's
> book as the cornerstone for their personal
> school of BJ.

> Don't.

> Parker said it earlier, and when I read his
> response I wondered what someone like you
> might think, so I'm saying it again,
> hoepfully more clearly.

> Don't do it.

> Put the book down and step away from the
> table.

> As was mentioned, it is a classic, a good
> book to have and have read for a lot of
> reasons, but I wouldn't commit to memory
> much of anything in it.

> Get Wong's book on HiLo; look around the web
> and get the correct BS for the game(s) you
> play (blackjackinfo.com is a start if
> nothing else); learn the I18 indexes Parker
> linked you up with.

> Revere's book is one I'm glad I own and have
> read. But not, as it turned out, to learn
> how to play BJ in 2004.

> Good luck.

To Mr. Parker and Sun Runner:

Your help is much appreciated. I will update my library, learn the I18 indices, and start playing blackjack in present time.

Thanks again

Russell

[Virgin annie]

> For starters, stop thinking in terms of
> session wins and losses. The cards do not
> know when your session begins or ends, or
> whether you are winning or losing. The
> important statistic is how much money you
> have won or lost overall.

How long do you think it takes before I get an idea of how well I'm playing,you know,when the cards finally start remembering I'm a card counter and it's all starting to mean something or anything? Thank you,Parker.

Virgin annie

> In addition, you cannot judge the
> effectiveness of a system by the results of
> a few sessions. You may be playing a winning
> game but merely experiencing negative
> deviation. Some might call it "bad
> luck."

> However, in order to know if you are playing
> a winning game, we need more information.
> You left out two extremely important
> details:

> 1. What is the penetration for each game?

> 2. What sort of bet spread are you using for
> each game?

> With this information we can tell you if you
> are indeed playing a winning game.

> You can definitely improve your game by
> using strategy variations. You do not have
> to learn a large number at once. For
> example, start by learing the correct
> insurance index, and the indices for 16 vs
> 10 and 15 vs 10. After you get comfortable
> using those, add a few more.

[Parker]

> How long do you think it takes before I get
> an idea of how well I'm playing,you
> know,when the cards finally start
> remembering I'm a card counter and it's all
> starting to mean something or anything?
> Thank you,Parker.

Those cards have notoriously poor memories. :-)

What you're asking is, "How long until we get to "the long run?"

It is impossible to put a simple number on this. Someone who is extremely discriminating about what games they play will get to the long run much sooner than someone who is not.

We had a thread on this a couple of months ago. Link below.

The long run

[John]

If you like to get into the "long run" quickly. Make a day of just wonging in and out of tables. Like say when the tc is +1 and leave when it drops down to 0. You will learn really fast how good the long run can be.