davek: Just luck?

[davek]

I have been playing seriously at local Indian casinos here in MN for seven weeks now. I have been using the Hi-Opt I counting system (no Ace side count) and been keeping track of my play sessions. So far in fifteen sessions (typically less than two hours each) I am up $3049. I play at two deck tables with typical rules (hit soft 17) and 60% to 75% shoe penetration. I bet $15 to $60 depending on the count.

Can someone tell me if my winnings, $3000 over 15 play sessions, is what I can expect or am I getting a bit lucky?

Thanks

DaveK

[Parker]

> I have been playing seriously at local
> Indian casinos here in MN for seven weeks
> now. I have been using the Hi-Opt I counting
> system (no Ace side count) and been keeping
> track of my play sessions. So far in fifteen
> sessions (typically less than two hours
> each) I am up $3049. I play at two deck
> tables with typical rules (hit soft 17) and
> 60% to 75% shoe penetration. I bet $15 to
> $60 depending on the count.

> Can someone tell me if my winnings, $3000
> over 15 play sessions, is what I can expect
> or am I getting a bit lucky?

A 1-4 spread isn't enough to beat a H17 DD game, especially if the pen is closer to 60% than 75%. I haven't simmed it, but your win rate cannot possibly be more than one unit per hour.

"A bit lucky?" You have been extremely lucky. You could just as easily be down $3,000.

[Magician]

I happen to have BJRM open so here are some numbers:

2D, H17, DAS, NS, 67% pen, Hi-Lo I18, 1-4 spread. SCORE is 26.42. That's $18.74 per 100 hands with a $15 unit. A $10K gives a 6.00% ROR.

Hi-Opt I without an ace side count is a bit weaker than Hi-Lo. You've played less than 30 hours and have won about 200 hours worth of EV. You're definitely on the right side of the bell curve.

Some ways to improve your game are: learn the ace side count or switch to an ace-reckoned count (such as Hi-Lo), increase your spread (if your bankroll and table mins allow), avoid negative counts and scout for better pen and rules.

Hope this helps.

[davek]

Actually looking back I have probably played closer to 50 hours, but this is still waaaay over what seems to be expected.

Thanks for the advice folks. I will look up the Hi-Lo system I see mentioned so much on here.

DaveK

> I happen to have BJRM open so here are some
> numbers:

> 2D, H17, DAS, NS, 67% pen, Hi-Lo I18, 1-4
> spread. SCORE is 26.42. That's $18.74 per
> 100 hands with a $15 unit. A $10K gives a
> 6.00% ROR.

> Hi-Opt I without an ace side count is a bit
> weaker than Hi-Lo. You've played less than
> 30 hours and have won about 200 hours worth
> of EV. You're definitely on the right side
> of the bell curve.

> Some ways to improve your game are: learn
> the ace side count or switch to an
> ace-reckoned count (such as Hi-Lo), increase
> your spread (if your bankroll and table mins
> allow), avoid negative counts and scout for
> better pen and rules.

> Hope this helps.