Mr. Ed: Accurate Count

[Mr. Ed]

I'll practice at the kitchen table with eight decks, the TV on, kids in the room ("Daddy, can I have some more juice?" and of course, I'll get it for them). I'll play dealer and six players - all playing using my betting ramp and BS deviations. My wife is talking to me and the phone usually rings at some point. I'll play the shoe down to the last card. Usually, I'm off by 2 from a running count of zero.

So here's my question - how accurate would I be in a real casino?

How much does an inaccurate count matter with 8 decks and 75% pen? (Off by a running count of 2, or more if you believe I do worse in a real casino!)

[jack in the black]

I wouldn't play in a casino until I did't make any mistakes with the count. Imagine penetration down to 2 decks, last hand of 8 deck shoe, your count says +2 true this could be anywhere between +1 and +3. Using Kelly betting would call to bet around 0.5% of your bankroll, if however count was really +1 you would be increasing ROR by increasing your bet at a neutral point, if count was really +3 then you would only be betting half of your advantage. Not to mention the associated mistakes in count based playing strategies, as far as this is concerned, Griffin stated the dangers of premature changes of strategy, as counts closer to zero occur more frequently, "the consequences of changing strategy too frequently will be more serious than those of not changing strategy often enough" i.e if your count is not accurate then it is probably best to add a point to the playing indices at positive counts.

> I'll practice at the kitchen table with
> eight decks, the TV on, kids in the room
> ("Daddy, can I have some more
> juice?" and of course, I'll get it for
> them). I'll play dealer and six players -
> all playing using my betting ramp and BS
> deviations. My wife is talking to me and the
> phone usually rings at some point. I'll play
> the shoe down to the last card. Usually, I'm
> off by 2 from a running count of zero.

> So here's my question - how accurate would I
> be in a real casino?

> How much does an inaccurate count matter
> with 8 decks and 75% pen? (Off by a running
> count of 2, or more if you believe I do
> worse in a real casino!)