zoomie: Holecarding and longevity

[zoomie]

Recently I stumbled across a dealer who flashed the hole card to me a bit at third base. It was incredible. I could see something maybe 80% of the time, could always spot paint if I could see anything, and could identify a number card as high/medium/low maybe 50% of the time. So for say 40% of the hands I was fairly or very certain what the dealer was holding. That let me take insurance, double on junk, surrender on pretty good hands, etc. And I scooped nearly $1,000 in less than 2 shoes before the shift changed. Awesome fun.

I believe I once read Grosjean quoted as saying that holecarding is worth a 40% advantage if you can see every card. Mine was maybe 20%. At that rate I calculate that a full hour flat betting at $100 should be worth $2,000 on average. But what of longevity? Do casinos do enough data analysis to notice that I always win against this dealer? Any advice for taking advantage without getting on the radar screen?

[JoshAxelrad]

Zoomie, be careful. The game you describe would be worth a good bit. But you don't sound like you are thinking like an advantage player. The numbers you cite from Grosjean are very wrong. Your estimation of your edge at maybe 20 percent is casual, wrong, and unsupported. You're guessing. Guessing is gambling. Have fun but expect to lose money.

> Recently I stumbled across a dealer who flashed the
> hole card to me a bit at third base. It was
> incredible. I could see something maybe 80% of the
> time, could always spot paint if I could see anything,
> and could identify a number card as high/medium/low
> maybe 50% of the time. So for say 40% of the hands I
> was fairly or very certain what the dealer was
> holding. That let me take insurance, double on junk,
> surrender on pretty good hands, etc. And I scooped
> nearly $1,000 in less than 2 shoes before the shift
> changed. Awesome fun.

> I believe I once read Grosjean quoted as saying that
> holecarding is worth a 40% advantage if you can see
> every card. Mine was maybe 20%. At that rate I
> calculate that a full hour flat betting at $100 should
> be worth $2,000 on average. But what of longevity? Do
> casinos do enough data analysis to notice that I
> always win against this dealer? Any advice for taking
> advantage without getting on the radar screen?

josh axelrad ( rich )

[newzoomie]

>The numbers you cite from Grosjean are very wrong.

True, I was recalling the wrong figure. The actual quoted advantage with perfect information was 13% and 6 - 9% with partial information and good charts. Maybe I have half that even, plus some for counting. Call it maybe 4 - 5% all in. At $100 per round and 50 rounds/hour that's $200 - $250 per hour, several times my expectation from counting alone. That is a good thing, but my sense is that, especially with flux around that EV such that sometimes I will lose, the casino is not likely to notice. BTW, the source article is:

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar...2,2266,00.html