Brick: SCORE for sp21

[Brick]

Does anyone the SCORE of sp21 using sp basic strategy compared to a regular 6 deck game of bj with 3/4 penn using hi-lo with basic?

thanks

[Brick]

Of course, using the same bet spread in both games with same ror.

[Katarina Walker]

What are your rules? S17, H17, H17 with redoubling, Meswkaki rules, S17 with no draws on split Aces? Makes a huge difference.
Also, I wouldn't recommend using basic strategy when playing advantage Spanish 21 because, on average, you increase your SCORE by 2.15 by using all indices, and almost as much using the I18. This is because, as the count increases from neutral, there is much more scope for play variation in Spanish 21 You should at least use the I18, which works well in SP21.
Also, in the real world, it probably won't be helpful comparing the two games using the same pen and betting strategy because
1. SP21 pen is always higher than the BJ pen in the same venue (because they only cut cards off the end to stop card counters). I have never been in a venue where this is not the case.
2. In SP21, you can get away with WIWOWIWOWIWO etc, and betting perfectly proportional to your advantage (and inversely to variance). I got away with it in the USA and I get away with it here. However, it's been 40 years since anyone has been able to play Blackjack like that (and last more than 10 minutes).
So if you compare the two games using the same pen and betting strategy, it's not going to give you meaningful results.
I recommend that all players calculate their win rate for both games based on actual penetrations at their venue(s), and actual betting strategies tested out at the table. Your betting strategy should be as proportional as you can get away with. The more you veer from proportional betting, the more it will cost you.
You can calc your win rate using Norm's CVData or the manual method explained in my book. Then play the game that gives you the best SCORE or win rate.

[Brick]

I do not know the specific rules because I've never paid much attention to the game,I now have a special interest

I'm already aware that if both games are using same conditions and spreads, BJ will have a better ev,but I dont know by how much.

If I increase my bet spread using the same minimum bet that I now use to say 1 to 24 in order to beat sp21, then it seems my ror and variance would increase and in order to compensate for this I'd have to have a much larger bankroll,is this true?

thanks

[Katarina Walker]

> I'm already aware that if both games are using same
> conditions and spreads, BJ will have a better ev,but I
> dont know by how much.
Where did you hear that - Frank Scoblete :-) ?
It depends on the SP21 rules and the BJ rules. There hundreds, if not thousands of casinos where the SP21 EV > BJ 21 EV, even given the same pen and betting spread. Included is every casino in Australia.

> If I increase my bet spread using the same minimum bet
> that I now use to say 1 to 24 in order to beat sp21,
> then it seems my ror and variance would increase and
> in order to compensate for this I'd have to have a
> much larger bankroll,is this true?
Why are you assuming that you need to increase your bet spread to beat Spanish 21?
Before you make any assumptions like that, you need to determine:
1. The BJ house edge at your local casino (which means that you need to know H17 or S17, surrender or no surrender, how many hands you can split to, etc.)
2. The number of decks in the BJ.
3. The BJ pen
4. The BJ heat. This determines whether or not you can wong in, wong out continously, and whether you can bet proportionally. I can tell you now that in BJ you can't do these two things. These two things add massively to your win rate.
5. The SP21 house edge at your local casino (depends on H17 or S17, redoubling or not, surrender available or not draws allowed on split Aces or not)
6. The heat in the SP21 pen. If there's no heat, you can WIWOWIWOWIWO, and bet proportionally.
7. The number of decks in the SP21 game.
Once you have all this information, it should be very obvious which game is the better of the two. If it isn't obvious, simply run two sims using CVData: one for BJ and one for SP21.

[Brick]

> Where did you hear that - Frank Scoblete :-) ?

Very funny,hee,hee. Actually heard it from Patrick;
I know what the ev is on all BJ games i play.''that also incudes pen,rules,conditions etc. to the nearest .01%
I live in america and play at several casinos that offer sp21. In general are the typical sp21 rules over here as good as australia or is scouting required?

> Why are you assuming that you need to increase your
> bet spread to beat Spanish 21?

I admit as a veteran card counter i have no experience at sp21,because there has never been much talk about it. I think i remember(many moons ago)people claiming it could be beat with a large bet spread. Maybe the rules are now more liberal in the usa ,i dont know.

much thanks.
Brick

[Katarina Walker]

Frank Scoblete said it could be beaten with a 1-80 spread because he he said that you had to wait until there were 4 tens per deck (i.e. same as Blackjack off the top). Ridiculous. That's like telling a Blackjack player that he can't start playing until the true count reaches +4. You'd be playing only 1 in 40 hands!!! (And that's with good penetration and 6 decks. With lousy pen and 8 decks,it would be less than 1 in 60 hands. You'd get 2 hands an hour.) No one would play advantage BJ if that was the case; they wouldn't have the patience.
Frank didn't realise that
1. IT'S NOT ABOUT THE COUNT: IT'S ABOUT THE ADVANTAGE.
2. You can't start your running count from zero if you're using Hi-Lo in Spanish 21 because it is unbalanced.
The TC is only useful as a number because it maps to a particular advantage. It depends on the counting system. You could design a counting system where a count of -20 corresponds to an advnantage of 2%. It depends on the tag values and starting running count.
Frank Scoblete is a compelling writer, I like his writing style, and apparently he's a good craps player, but he's out of his depth when it comes to analysing games because he has no math or computer science training or experience. So he relies on other peoples' material to quote in his books, without having the skills to be able to verify it or assess its value. He's in the business of writing gaming books, so he has to write a lot of them. He can't spend 3 years on one book lik I do.