brighten: Lucky lady betting stragety question.

brighten · 06-26-2006, 03:41 AM

lucky lady is still the most popular side bet on BJ game around. this side bet has more than 20% housing edge on a nutual shoes. Clearly , this side bet is beatable by card counting.

I am wondering with hi-low count, what is exact edge or expectation that this side bet have? I believe you need at least TC>4 to make this side bet have a positive return. Say on TC 6 with hi-low, what is the edge of betting on lucky lady? Can anyone provide a table? what is the standard deviation of this side bet on TC over 4? how much should I bet according to my BR or related to the main bet? Is it helpful to keep a side count of Queen of hearts ?

I could not find anything about lucky lady bet on CVData, but I believe that there should be some simulation that have been done with this subject.

thanks a lot!

Eliot Jacobson · 06-26-2006, 08:48 AM

Here is a sim of 100 million hands at a 6 deck game using hi-lo.

  

*******************  

Lucky Ladies Report  

*******************  

Number of decks: 6  

number of hands: 100000000  

Penetration: 260 cards.  

Payoff schedule:   

   Any 20:        4-to-1  

   Suited 20:     9-to-1  

   Matched 20:    20-to-1  

   QH pair:       150-to-1  

   QH pair + BJ:  1000-to-1  

Count system:   

   A: -1  

   2: 1  

   3: 1  

   4: 1  

   5: 1  

   6: 1  

   7: 0  

   8: 0  

   9: 0  

   T: -1  

QofH: -1  

  

  

Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour): $10.6394  

Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed: $2.2135  

Key True count (make bet at this count or higher): 6  

  

  

TC      %EV     FREQ  

<=0     -56.07  71432099  

1       -36.18  11495896  

2       -29.23  6695725  

3       -21.37  3926711  

4       -13.4   2477395  

5       -5.1    1568884  

6       3.48    842964  

7       11.67   632419  

8       21.0    376706  

9       30.02   209382  

10      38.52   140070  

11      50.57   80941  

12      54.04   44134  

13      65.84   47455  

14      79.44   12905  

15      106.24  7649  

16      114.78  3936

> lucky lady is still the most popular side bet on BJ
> game around. this side bet has more than 20% housing
> edge on a nutual shoes. Clearly , this side bet is
> beatable by card counting.

> I am wondering with hi-low count, what is exact edge
> or expectation that this side bet have? I believe you
> need at least TC>4 to make this side bet have a
> positive return. Say on TC 6 with hi-low, what is the
> edge of betting on lucky lady? Can anyone provide a
> table? what is the standard deviation of this side bet
> on TC over 4? how much should I bet according to my BR
> or related to the main bet? Is it helpful to keep a
> side count of Queen of hearts ?

> I could not find anything about lucky lady bet on
> CVData, but I believe that there should be some
> simulation that have been done with this subject.

> thanks a lot!

jblaze · 06-26-2006, 10:27 AM

Keep in mind it is a pretty big give away. Also, the bet tends to be capped at $25. To increase earnings you could play multiple hands, but again, you are giving yourself away.

> Here is a sim of 100 million hands at a 6 deck game
> using hi-lo.
> *******************
> Lucky Ladies Report
> *******************
> Number of decks: 6
> number of hands: 100000000
> Penetration: 260 cards.
> Payoff schedule:
> Any 20: 4-to-1
> Suited 20: 9-to-1
> Matched 20: 20-to-1
> QH pair: 150-to-1
> QH pair + BJ: 1000-to-1
> Count system:
> A: -1
> 2: 1
> 3: 1
> 4: 1
> 5: 1
> 6: 1
> 7: 0
> 8: 0
> 9: 0
> T: -1
> QofH: -1
>
> Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour):
> $10.6394
> Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed:
> $2.2135
> Key True count (make bet at this count or higher): 6
>
> TC %EV FREQ
> 1 -36.18 11495896
> 2 -29.23 6695725
> 3 -21.37 3926711
> 4 -13.4 2477395
> 5 -5.1 1568884
> 6 3.48 842964
> 7 11.67 632419
> 8 21.0 376706
> 9 30.02 209382
> 10 38.52 140070
> 11 50.57 80941
> 12 54.04 44134
> 13 65.84 47455
> 14 79.44 12905
> 15 106.24 7649
> 16 114.78 3936
>
>

brighten · 06-26-2006, 01:18 PM

> Here is a sim of 100 million hands at a 6 deck game
> using hi-lo.
> *******************
> Lucky Ladies Report
> *******************
> Number of decks: 6
> number of hands: 100000000
> Penetration: 260 cards.
> Payoff schedule:
> Any 20: 4-to-1
> Suited 20: 9-to-1
> Matched 20: 20-to-1
> QH pair: 150-to-1
> QH pair + BJ: 1000-to-1
> Count system:
> A: -1
> 2: 1
> 3: 1
> 4: 1
> 5: 1
> 6: 1
> 7: 0
> 8: 0
> 9: 0
> T: -1
> QofH: -1
>
> Lucky Lady earnings per 100 rounds (per hour):
> $10.6394
> Earnings per Lucky Lady $25 bet actually placed:
> $2.2135
> Key True count (make bet at this count or higher): 6
>
> TC %EV FREQ
> 1 -36.18 11495896
> 2 -29.23 6695725
> 3 -21.37 3926711
> 4 -13.4 2477395
> 5 -5.1 1568884
> 6 3.48 842964
> 7 11.67 632419
> 8 21.0 376706
> 9 30.02 209382
> 10 38.52 140070
> 11 50.57 80941
> 12 54.04 44134
> 13 65.84 47455
> 14 79.44 12905
> 15 106.24 7649
> 16 114.78 3936
>
>
Thanks a lot, Mayor ! I am wondering what software that you used to generate the table above. With hi-low tc >=6, what is the standard deviation on the lucky lady bet assuming betting 25$ all the time with TC 6+. Also, anybody know that any similiar simulatioin has been done with KO?

brighten · 06-26-2006, 01:29 PM

> Keep in mind it is a pretty big give away. Also, the
> bet tends to be capped at $25. To increase earnings
> you could play multiple hands, but again, you are
> giving yourself away.

I just paid close attention to the payout sturcture that you specify. In most game around, the payout structure is a little bit different, with less payout. All the lucky lady that I have seen is like this:

Any 20: 4-to-1

Suited 20: 9-to-1

Matched 20: 19-to-1
QH pair: 125-to-1
QH pair + BJ: 1000-to-1

should not make too much difference. but I still want to find out the exact edge.
thanks.