> Frankly, I'm disappointed by the direction that the
> thread has taken. The original question was, actually,
> quite simple, and it has a simple answer: It is
> unquestionably true that certain plays will change.
> The problem with the discussion is, rather than simply
> answer the question, people have gone off on all sorts
> of tangents and are answering questions that they
> find interesting, rather than answering directly the
> original question.
Well, that's not quite true. I did run the experiments the way you asked to do it but you didn't like the answers and said they were wrong and flawed. However, I did run one last sim considering some of your new candidates.
> Again, I'm not certain of every play, but it seems
> reasonably clear to me that A,2 v. 5 will change; 12
> v. 4 will change; surrendering 15 v. 10 will change;
> and it may the case that A,4 v. 4 will change;
> surrendering 16 v. 9 will change; and splitting 3,3 v.
> 2 might change.
This time I ran 10000 million rounds per sim in order to get a lower SE.
1) NBS-PLAYER + WONGER at +1 (Hi-Lo)
Rounds = 10000000025
Shoes = 233419056
r/s = 42.841404
Ev = -0.005810
Var = 1.327425
Sd = 1.152139
Se = 0.000012
2) ABS-PLAYER + WONGER at +1 (Hi-Lo)
The Altered-BS uses the following 4 plays:
a) 12v4 ==> Hit (instead of Stand)
b) A2v5 ==> Hit (instead of Double)
c) A4v4 ==> Hit (instead of Double)
d) 33v2 ==> Hit (instead of Split)
Rounds = 10000000022
Shoes = 233207570
r/s = 42.880255
Ev = -0.005815
Var = 1.336033
Sd = 1.155869
Se = 0.000012
As you can see, there is no significative change in EV. In fact, I would say that the Normal-BS is a little bit better.
Hope this helps.
Sincerely,
Cac
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