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Norm Wattenberger: Targets and Stop Losses
Targets and stop losses are two of the more common voodoo methods used by gamblers. Of course they have no effect on Basic Strategy players. However, many if not most card counters also think they have no effect on their play. It's important to understand that strictly enforced stops do have an effect on card counters. And this can be a hefty negative effect.
I ran seven sims: 5/6, S17, DAS, heads-up, spread 16:1, $25 unit, 200 hand sessions max. I set win targets and stop losses of $1,500 and $2,500. By target I mean you immediately end a session when you hit the target and by Stop Loss I mean you immediately end a session when you hit the Stop Loss. SCOREs are charted below:
The SCORE decreases are a result of leaving the shoe when the count is high. Unfortunately, the count is very likely to be high when you reach either a target or stop loss. Obviously, if you play out the shoe or wait for the count to drop back before ending the session, you won't see any decrease. And of course if you hit your stop loss and simply have no ability to continue betting, your SCORE is lower than you think.
Serious Blackjack Software
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Parker: Viktor, please archive
I'm surprised that this has not received more attention. Discussions regarding stop-win/loss strategies usually focus on the fact that they increase the time necessary to get into the long run.
What really jumps out at me from this graph is the fact that a person using a $1500 target/stop-loss is cutting his/her SCORE in half.
Beautiful, Norm.
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Cacarulo: Nice Post Norm! *NM*
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Don Schlesinger: Original work
To the best of my knowledge (and I know more than most about what's been done and what's in print!), this is a lovely piece of original work, whose content we have never seen before.
There is, of course, an immediate and logical conclusion, mentioned by Norm in his post: If you're going to use a stop loss or win target, make sure that the way you implement it is to say that when the shoe in which you either hit your target or loss-limit is completed, you will stop playing.
Along these lines, see the recommendation in BJA3, p. 293, #3, which explains ("super-wipeout") why, occasionally, you are going to surpass those stated limits.
Don
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Don Schlesinger: Clarification
Of course, if you are mid-shoe, have reached either target, and the count is negative, you can certainly leave immediately. So my advice, above, to remain until the shoe is completed (or, now, subsequently turns negative) holds only if the count is positive when you reach your target.
But, you guys knew that, right? :-)
Don
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thanks4thefish: Voodoo indeed
I have never understood stop loss/ win targets. I agree with Norm that they are TOTAL VOODOO.
Firstly the whole reason you wade thru neg EV, is to get into pos. EV territory. After trudging thru the desert why would you seek early departure from the promised land?
Your costs are the same but your rewards are less, just plain stupid. As for the 'psychological factors' that are often put forward for doing so,
a) If you're making a distinction bewteen one session & the next, you are deluding yourself. The sun has gone down, come up, that is all. The next day is merely a continuation of your 1st session ever played, & however many years later your last play is, marks the end of that 1st session.
b) If the reason for stop losses/ win targets is to respectively prevent steaming & disappointment, then it shows that the AP is not professional, & possesses either poor self control &/or a weak comprehension of SD, & hourly rate.
Now If I could just convince the wife after we dropped 25K last weekend of this..........................!
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AutomaticMonkey: Legit purposes of stop win
The first one I can think of is regulatory. Hell will freeze over before I attempt to cash out more than $10K in a casino and fill out those forms. Especially if playing under an alias; that's a felony to falsify one of those forms. Better to go next door and play or come back tomorrow than to attract the attention of Uncle Sam. The second reason is heat-deflection; playing in one place too long is a bad idea anyway and if you have an ostentatious win, you may have already been there too long. The third reason for stop-win is knowing thyself. None of us are really robots and if you know you get careless, distracted, or develop a gambling problem when you have an unbelievably large pile in front of you, take a break, do whatever you have to do with your winnings, and go back and start a "new session".
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Magician: Wow!
Talk about a picture worth a thousand words (or a thousand dollars)! The effect must be even worse for a backcounter, who would always be leaving in a positive count.
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