Victor Franis: Mezrich Book

[Victor Franis]

I just picked up the new Ben Mezrich book about Semyon Dukach. I figured it would be a fun read, which it has been. In fact I plan to continue reading it over a couple of pints of Guinness. I do have a couple of pre-Guinness questions.

He says the house advantage is 2% using basic strategy. This is in a Vegas hotel and it sounds like they are playing 2D. Am I high or is it .2% for 2D and .36% for 6D?

I think he is saying Ace prediction gives you 51% advantage over the house on the hand you are playing. Is that true?

I have no interest in shuffle tracking or ace predicion since I am just a basic low limit hi-lo counter. It sounds intellectually interesting to me though. Are there any good overviews on the advanced techniques they use?

[Sun Runner]

> He says the house advantage is 2% using basic strategy.

I haven't seen the book but if he is referring to a good BS player, this is high.

> This is in a Vegas hotel and it sounds like
> they are playing 2D. Am I high or is it .2% for 2D and
> .36% for 6D?

Depending on the rules and the quality of the BS player, this is more in line. I think the 6D number is low, probably closer to .45%. I assume every 6D game I set down to is .50% and go from there.

Good luck.

[Parker]

> I just picked up the new Ben Mezrich book about Semyon
> Dukach. I figured it would be a fun read, which it has
> been. In fact I plan to continue reading it over a
> couple of pints of Guinness. I do have a couple of
> pre-Guinness questions.

> He says the house advantage is 2% using basic
> strategy. This is in a Vegas hotel and it sounds like
> they are playing 2D. Am I high or is it .2% for 2D and
> .36% for 6D?

A typical Vegas double deck game has an off-the-top edge of from .19 to .53 or so for the basic strategy player, depending on the rules. Six deck shoes run from .26 to .63 or above, again depending on the rules.

The 2% figure is often quoted as the house edge over a typical unskilled player who does not know basic strategy.

> I think he is saying Ace prediction gives you 51%
> advantage over the house on the hand you are playing.
> Is that true?

Someone who knows with 100% certainty that he will be dealt an ace does indeed have a huge edge for that hand. Not many ace trackers are this good. In addition, they will often spread to several hands in order to increase the likelihood of catching the ace, further diluting the advantage.

> I have no interest in shuffle tracking or ace
> predicion since I am just a basic low limit hi-lo
> counter. It sounds intellectually interesting to me
> though. Are there any good overviews on the advanced
> techniques they use?

We carry some books in our online catalog that cover the basics.

[Victor Franis]

Thanks for the answers. I have read a bit more of the book. Its a fun read, wait for the paperback, not worth hard copy prices. The other thing is that Semyon basically always has some trouble such as getting beat up and always gets caught. I would hope there is a lot of artistic license in the story telling going on here.

[Jackie Chiles]

Victor:

I was glad to read your last message on "Busting Vegas" because it shows that you are actually thinking about what Mezrich is writing. I read "Bringing Down The House," his first book on the MIT teams, and reread it a second time. Over and over again I had the nagging feeling that what I was reading simply was not true. I got the distinct impression that Mezrich was going for a Hollywood film deal more than anything.

I thumbed through "Busting Vegas" at a bookstore and came to the same conclusion you did: I'll wait for the paperback version, or better yet get it from a library.

Finally, Mezrich does not seem to have a rock solid grasp of blackjack and neither does his editor. I would NOT rely on his analysis of the game. The game has been analyzed to an astonishing degree. For a couple of hundred dollars you can have the classic books which will correctly answer your questions.

Jackie Chiles

[Martingale]

I had the same feeling when I read, "Bringing Down the House".
Mezrich is the author who takes a good second hand story and embellishes it. He seems to take much poetic license.
I couldn't finish the book.

[college kid]

Obviously there is a lot of fluff and artistic license, and the BS player has less than 2% going against him. But the basic principle of their moves is good. While I don't think sequencing, steering, and shuffle tracking are revolutionary and life changing, they are powerful moves. Getting an ace on a given hand is worth 51% on that hand. Making a ten the next card for the dealer to hit with is worth about 30% on each player's hand. Of course, these opportunities to catch where these cards are and then make sure they get to the right spot don't occur often (or with 100% accuracy), but when they do, it's huge--and overall much better than straight counting. Anyway, it's a fun read and I thoroughly enjoyed it, and hope our hero and Alley or Alice or whatever her name is live happily ever after. And BTW, the DVDs Semyon put out are poor quality but interesting to watch.

> I just picked up the new Ben Mezrich book about Semyon
> Dukach. I figured it would be a fun read, which it has
> been. In fact I plan to continue reading it over a
> couple of pints of Guinness. I do have a couple of
> pre-Guinness questions.

> He says the house advantage is 2% using basic
> strategy. This is in a Vegas hotel and it sounds like
> they are playing 2D. Am I high or is it .2% for 2D and
> .36% for 6D?

> I think he is saying Ace prediction gives you 51%
> advantage over the house on the hand you are playing.
> Is that true?

> I have no interest in shuffle tracking or ace
> predicion since I am just a basic low limit hi-lo
> counter. It sounds intellectually interesting to me
> though. Are there any good overviews on the advanced
> techniques they use?

[Joker's Wild]

> Obviously there is a lot of fluff and artistic
> license, and the BS player has less than 2% going
> against him. But the basic principle of their moves is
> good. While I don't think sequencing, steering, and
> shuffle tracking are revolutionary and life changing,
> they are powerful moves. Getting an ace on a given
> hand is worth 51% on that hand. Making a ten the next
> card for the dealer to hit with is worth about 30% on
> each player's hand. Of course, these opportunities to
> catch where these cards are and then make sure they
> get to the right spot don't occur often (or with 100%
> accuracy), but when they do, it's huge--and overall
> much better than straight counting. Anyway, it's a fun
> read and I thoroughly enjoyed it, and hope our hero
> and Alley or Alice or whatever her name is live
> happily ever after. And BTW, the DVDs Semyon put out
> are poor quality but interesting to watch.

What is steering?

[college kid]

> What is steering?

Knowing that a card is going to come out in X number of cards and then sending (or "steering")it where you want by appropriately hitting or standing on other bets at the table (you need to pretty much have the table to yourself) to ensure the card goes where you want it. Like giving yourself an ace or giving the dealer a ten to bust him. And don't sue me; I was aware of these concepts before I read the book or saw the video. They've been around for a while.