> What KBP states is certainly possible, I believe it is
> just as likely that some folks experience positive
> variance right off the bat, get ahead, and never look
> back. Sadly, I believe the opposite to be true also.

> Are big losses looming out there just so the universe
> can even the score on your side of the ledger? Maybe;
> maybe not.

> Your results should be far superior to the play-all
> counter if you have the freedom and ability to
> consistently move in on good counts and out when it's
> bad. If you do have ability to cut Tens and Aces, your
> results should be better still.

> Comparing your results to some generic play-all
> counter would not be a good comparison.

> Quitting is an answer to preserve what you have made
> so far, and who could blame you. If you possess the
> skills you state, and are playing in what seems a very
> friendly environment, I probably would not.

> Honestly, after your very first post, I thought I read
> into it so many disconnects, fubars, and just general
> lack of knowledge .. while at the same time asserting
> above average skills in certain areas .. I wasn't sure
> you were on the level.

By all means am I lacking in "general" knowledge that's why I'm here to learn As I've stated my partner and I utilize the hi-lo count but don't always use the true count effectively in relation to betting unit size. I probably have been more than fortunate that whatever edge I am getting I have been winning and just leaving.

So bringing myself "on the level" I hope that I didn't post in a manner that would make it seem like I thought I was a good counter counter or even an above average one. Hence my apprehension about where I'm sitting at in terms of money accumulated and whether it's just a time bomb waiting to go off so I lose it all because I am playing without a complete knowledge of what I am doing.

As for whether I am playing in a friendly environment or not...So far so good. I'm still getting comped food and drinks

> I'm not sure still, but if you are, I would not let
> some initial positive variance get me down.

> PS -about the 'clumping thing.' Are you saying you
> feel the cards clump from some natural occurance or
> that the CSM is ineffective in it's operation and you
> have somehow discovered a way to exploit that?

> Good luck.

A pit boss I know once told me that he feels sorry for people who play at CSM because he "knows" that dealers can exploit them in the manner they let the discard pile build up and the number of cards that they place back into the machine. I've actually noticed a dealer in the past who would leave cards (aces and tens) in the discard pile and not place them back into the machine before and when she did this more than once in the game I commented on this and she stopped. Same pit boss told me that the thing with CSM is that they don't shuffle properly so they can be exploited because of this. So if there are 4 Ace's stuck together those same 4 Ace's have a good chance to sticking together for many cycles. Likewise if a CSM has low cards stuck together and the highs are at the other end, if you can time this right (and the dealer is replacing the discards every two deals or so) it can be exploited. However, on the same note...a CSM that has the cards equally distributed between highs & lows is a machine I tend to not want to play.

I would love to purchase a CSM and experiment with it to actually test my theories out other than with money at the table. I could also be totally out to lunch on this and the information given to me by the pit boss could also be wrong.