chris: expected value

[college kid]

But busting out is the exact same as getting the bonus-- when I played they let you play with the bonus-- you just couldn't cash it out until you met the requirements. So if you bust-- meaning you lose your deposit AND the bonus before you meet the requirements, then it's as if you got the bonus at that casino without fulfilling all the requirements and just hit a bad streak, which as I said, will be made up for. That one casino where you don't bust will make up for it. You don't bust out and lose the bonus and then ask the casino to give you another bonus. Did you misunderstand me or am I missing something???

> ... if you bust out, and you're confident
> the game is fair, you're going to want to
> buy in for more to complete your reqs just
> to get the bonus. The expectation for the
> game is constant (EV x $500 in this case, or
> around -$2.50) assuming you play just enough
> to meet the req. And it's insignificanr
> compared to the bonus.

> When I was playing online, it was rare for a
> casino to give the bonus just for busting
> out. Of course, it was also rare to bust
> out, since the wagering requirements were
> much lower.

> ETF

[ET Fan]

He's getting the bonus BEFORE meeting the betting reqs. I don't think I ever got that. Not often, anyway. Placed my last bet online in late 2000. Got burned in the "Tropica scandal."

You're right then. He could raise his EV by betting more. It should be possible to put together a kind of optimal beting theory to help decide how much to bet depending on his goals.

ETF

> But busting out is the exact same as getting
> the bonus-- when I played they let you play
> with the bonus-- you just couldn't cash it
> out until you met the requirements. So if
> you bust-- meaning you lose your deposit AND
> the bonus before you meet the requirements,
> then it's as if you got the bonus at that
> casino without fulfilling all the
> requirements and just hit a bad streak,
> which as I said, will be made up for. That
> one casino where you don't bust will make up
> for it. You don't bust out and lose the
> bonus and then ask the casino to give you
> another bonus. Did you misunderstand me or
> am I missing something???