Hi Rick,
I bought your "Blackjack in the Zone" book and noticed that you mentioned on pgs 41-42 that 100 times max bet is 5% Element of Ruin (19 out of 20 chance of DOUBLING the bankroll before going broke). Did you mean doubling or "winning infinitely"?
If 100x max bet is indeed 5% ROR for doubling your bankroll, then what is the 5% ROR for winning infinitely or vice versa? Thanks!
> Hi Rick,
> I bought your "Blackjack in the
> Zone" book and noticed that you
> mentioned on pgs 41-42 that 100 times max
> bet is 5% Element of Ruin (19 out of 20
> chance of DOUBLING the bankroll before going
> broke). Did you mean doubling or
> "winning infinitely"?
> If 100x max bet is indeed 5% ROR for
> doubling your bankroll, then what is the 5%
> ROR for winning infinitely or vice versa?
> Thanks!
Questions such as these can be answered definitevely with BJA3's new risk formulas, or with CV software that will have the calculators necessary to figure these things out.
Rick's numbers are "ballpark." Come up with a precise EV and SD for the game you're playing, and I'll tell you how many units of bank you need for 5% ROR vs. winning infinitely. if you prefer doubling, I'll give you that, too.
Don
Hi Random Poster,
Don said it better than I ever could. I did use the old standard approximation. Probably should update that giving references to software such as Casino Verite and Don's upcoming BJA3 where your possibilities are endless. Thanks for the idea.
Regards,
Rick
Rick and Don,
Actually, I asked that question because many BJ authors seem to compare apples to oranges. They base their ROR calculations on "infinite wins" but when they play, they only play until they double their bankroll (as was the case with your team episode). It seems pointless to me to calculate ROR based on infinite wins, especially considering most people calculate ROR for each trip (with a win goal in mind). Wouldn't it be more feasible to calcuate ROR based on "near-term" goals--such as doubling one's bankroll?
Don, the scenerio I have in mind is this: I use the KO Preferred count and I play standard Reno 2-deck games (I guess it's about 60% penetration). Given $2000 bankroll, and a 1-6 unit spread, with min-bet at $5, what is my ROR with a goal of doubling my bankroll? If you make any assumptions (such as rules), please state them. I'm embarrassed to sayI don't know what the EV or SD should be given those figures. I guess I just need a clearer picture of what I'm up against.
By the way, should I buy BJA 2 right now or just wait until BJA3?
Thanks all for your help!
> Don said it better than I ever could. I did
> use the old standard approximation. Probably
> should update that giving references to
> software such as Casino Verite and Don's
> upcoming BJA3 where your possibilities are
> endless. Thanks for the idea.
> Regards,
> Rick
Assuming H17 & D9, CVCX gets 27.4% RoR with a goal of doubling your bet with no time constraint. 37.7% with no goal or time constraint. The Kelly unit size is $2.44. With a $2 min bet, the RoR is 8% doubling and 8.7% no goal. This assumes optimal betting ramp.
Note: Penetration is important here. Your RoR changes by 0.8% by each card of penetration.
> Assuming H17 & D9, CVCX gets 27.4% RoR
> with a goal of doubling your bet with no
> time constraint. 37.7% with no goal or time
> constraint. The Kelly unit size is $2.44.
> With a $2 min bet, the RoR is 8% doubling
> and 8.7% no goal. This assumes optimal
> betting ramp.
> Note: Penetration is important here. Your
> RoR changes by 0.8% by each card of
> penetration.
Thanks, Norm. Note that our poster said he was using a $5 unit, so I'd assume his ROR is even greater still.
Don
The first pair of numbers were for a $5 unit.
> Thanks, Norm. Note that our poster said he
> was using a $5 unit, so I'd assume his ROR
> is even greater still.
It is interesting to see these figures. First, I thought the difference in ROR would be much greater between winning infinitely and doubling your bankroll. Second, it seems as you approach Kelly Optimal, that difference in ROR decreases (perhaps to 0?).
Since I am only concerned with my trip stake (and with the doubling goal in mind), I'll consider the 27.4% ROR.
Thanks all for your time and help.
> The first pair of numbers were for a $5
> unit.
> It is interesting to see these figures.
> First, I thought the difference in ROR would
> be much greater between winning infinitely
> and doubling your bankroll. Second, it seems
> as you approach Kelly Optimal, that
> difference in ROR decreases (perhaps to 0?).
True, in theory if you play optimal kelly you'll never go broke. The problem is how do you bet 27 cents when kelly calls for it? There is no such thing as playing at a fixed"Kelly" risk of ruin that assures you will never wont go broke. If you play an agressive kelly strategy with at 27%(or 8%) ROR and continue to do so,you may eventually go broke.
Thought someone might tell me what my ROR would be since I am visiting LV soon. Playing SD and DD only, probably downtown, minimum bet $5 (all negative counts),average bet $10, high bet $30, Bank Roll $2000.
Wold like to know my ROR and suggestions for change.
Your bankroll and stategy seem in order as long as this is only a short trip bank. It is difficult to determine what your ROR is due to many variables,hours,rules,conditions,etc.
In other words if you choose to gamble for 24 hours the ROR is much higher than one who puts in only 4 hours of action. Of course in theory you can play to 0% risk of ruin the less hours you gamble.
Good luck
> Thought someone might tell me what my ROR
> would be since I am visiting LV soon.
> Playing SD and DD only, probably downtown,
> minimum bet $5 (all negative counts),average
> bet $10, high bet $30, Bank Roll $2000.
> Wold like to know my ROR and suggestions for
> change.
Hi,
I'm assuming that since your bet ramp and bankroll are exactly the same as mine and the games you're playing are similar to mine (though with somewhat better rules), that your ROR will be slightly less than mine. If I were to hazard a guess, maybe 20-25% ROR?
--RP
> Thought someone might tell me what my ROR
> would be since I am visiting LV soon.
> Playing SD and DD only, probably downtown,
> minimum bet $5 (all negative counts),average
> bet $10, high bet $30, Bank Roll $2000.
> Wold like to know my ROR and suggestions for
> change.
Posting Permissions
-*-
Bookmarks