Betting Strategy

[DM21]

Glad to hear the news! Best of luck to you, and stay the course!

Thanks for the encouragement and advice that you gave me earlier. A month ago I didn't even know what I didn't know. Now atleast I know what I don't know and what I need to work on, if that even makes since. I have come a long way in a month.

[DM21]

Yes but your original post implied you had misunderstood some fundamental concepts.

1) You can only gain +EV by making +EV bets. Since flat betting yields an edge for the house (and not you) then no combination of stop wins/losses will yield an overall +EV. I.e. in the long term you will lose.
2) All sessions are independent. This is why people describe life all your play as being "one long session". Quitting while you're ahead and then coming in the following week is exactly the same as staying longer in the first place (assuming conditions are the same etc.)
3) There is some benefit in setting win/loss levels. Whilst setting them reduces your EV overall (as you hit stops and therefore play less), it gives you the following benefits
a) You don't show so much of your bankroll to the casino
b) It protects you from huge swings which can be emotionally painful and may even affect the quality of your play
c) By setting an asymmetric win/loss level, you can show the casino that you lose more often than you win, which they like.

Here's my advice for you:

1) STOP PLAYING IMMEDIATELY
2) Read more about blackjack, especially about the meaning of a +EV bet - try to understand why counting works and why flat betting with stops doesn't.
3) Polish up your HiLo, go back and place bets of the correct size according to the true HiLo count (that you've been working on). START SMALL!!

Good luck!

Thanks for your honest assessment. I have come to grips with my prior voodoo thought process. Since I have read "Professional Blackjack", "Blackbelt in Blackjack:, and "The Big Book of Blackjack" along with most everything I could find on the net.

I still have a long way to go but I feel that I am proficient at using hi-lo. I need to continue to add more indicies and become quicker with my decicions. I made a trip yesterday and got in 9 quick to midlength sessions. I tried to keep them as short as possible and left after I showed my spread twice. I didn't really feel any heat and I wanted to keep it that way.

I did make a few mistakes that I know of; had 4 units out when I should have had 6 out for a max bet at TC +4, I realized it just as the cards where coming out. Of course it was a BJ, I thought is was funny that the dealer commented "Good timing" when I hit it. Hit a 16 vs ten at TC 0, I had always hit 16's so I did it instinctively. I knew it as soon as I scratched the card but it was too late.

I know I need to work on my shoe game more but I am drawn to DD. I have found one good $10 game but most are $25. My ror is higher but I have a replenishable br so I am willing to accept a higher ror until I get my br in order for that level. I am reinvesting atleast 90% of my winnings back into the br.

It was a good trip overall and there was some positive flux in my favor. I ended up about 75 units (minimum bet) ahead which I believe is ahead of schedule for around 6 hours of play. It was good to see everything I have learned work in a real setting instead of cvbj or phone app.

Thanks again for the comments.