Just thought I'd throw my hat in the suggestion ring regarding (back to) Aslan's page one 'bad shoes' contribution.

Dealer Bust Av is 28.20%, which is a high figure when you think about it. This figure is set in stone in the big picture. So whatever you do or don't do, as a player - and however the dealer is shuffling (without cheating of course) - that 28.20% figure is there always, for you to ignore or for you to capitalize on. So how can you capitalize on it?... and how does it fit in with Aslan's 'bad shoes?'

Nobody here (I hope) is silly enough to play one box of 7 in an 8-deck game, right? You can do much better than that... Let's say it's 6-deck, 75% pen with four or five players. That should get you 16 rounds. At 28.20% dealer busts, can you expect around 5 dealer busts this shoe? No, of course not because obviously the long-term figure is exactly that and this particular shoe is short-term. I suggest that Aslan's Series of Bad Shoes were mostly all well short of the 28.20% DB mark. If you are trying to check this idea out, it takes a view of the long-term, which is not easy to accomplish when one is so versed in the here-and-now, cut-and-thrust right now in the game.

My (voodoo) theory is that somehow, the shoe 'knows' the dealer bust figure is 28.20% and shortly (or longly) - if you are patient - you might expect a shoe that suddenly 'corrects' and whammo! a whole series of dealer busts happens, many in succession; even when the dealer has a face or ace up. You may even see 9 or more dealer busts of the 16 rounds for that shoe. I think everyone here has seen that (rare) kind of phenomenon as well as the far-more-common Bad Shoe after Bad Shoe. Of course, if you happen to be seated in Third Base, you call the shots on whether or not to take that crucial last card. If you are canny (and experienced) enough, you may be able to break from basic strategy at times, when ... experience and... canniness... tells you; and 'engineer' yet another dealer bust. Good luck.