Hello; I had wanted to know when to leave a shoe when using an unbalanced count such as UBZII. A rule using a fixed Wong-out number clearly will not do because we expect the running count to be lower early in the shoe. The BJA chapter 13 method gives an idealized answer but is very demanding; it is easier to calculate the expected player advantage for the rest of a shoe given the shoe position and count, and use that as a “point of departure” (!) for making the decision. In other words, if the count two decks into the shoe is only X, should I stay or should I go?
Here it is; 6 decks, H17, DAS, 4.5/6 penetration; sim was run using bet camouflage, 1-10 spread, 14 indices. Baseline player advantage is about 0.46%. Averaged over the whole shoe, the current-hand player advantage turns positive at a count of -6. The graph shows that two decks into the shoe, if the count is -18, the expected advantage for the rest of the shoe is zero and there is no reason to keep playing. If the count is -15, the expected advantage is 0.5% and we might as well stay. But three decks in, we don’t have the same advantage unless the count is -10.
advantageUbzRunning.png
The above is sort of a hybrid between using a running count and a true count. If the running count is converted to a true count, the graphs look like this:
advantageUbzTrue2.png
The same thing using Hi-Lo and the 1-12 “Rabbit” bet ramp:
advantageHiLoTrue2.png
Having calculated these, the departure points are like indices.
In case anyone is interested . . . .
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