Exploitable Lucky Ladies + 8D decent game

[Freightman]

6D. Here is more detail. https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjacksidebet1.htm

Good shit. Worthy of more in depth study.

[Cacarulo]

I have the system and am extremely interested in LL; fellow players are frequently advising me to "put money on the Lucky Ladies circle." Any indices about LL will be greatly appreciated.

You can write to me privately, and I'll gladly send you those indices.

Sincerely,
Cac

[Cacarulo]

Consider a blackjack game offering these conditions : 8D H17 DAS 3:2 ; No surrender ; No RSA ; 4 hand splits ; Insurance 2:1 ; Penetration 75 to 80 % depending on dealer. VERY LOW HEAT & Wonging tolerated.

These rules are decent at most if not very bad! But, i've found out that the payout of the Lucky Ladies side bet is making it beatable easily with a HI-LO count. Here is the Payout :

PAYOUT TABLE FOR LUCKY LADIES SIDE BETS* Player’s first two cards Payout
Pair – Queen of hearts (and the house has a blackjack) 1,000 to 1
Pair – Queen of hearts 200 to 1
Pair – 10s, jacks, queens or kings of the same suit 25 to 1
Total of 20 of the same suit 10 to 1
Total of 20 4 to 1


The information below are based on https://www.blackjackapprenticeship....cky-Ladies.pdf

Using only HI-LO, a TC+4 is indicating an advantage to the player (EV 1.1%) and basically every additionnal TC is giving adding 4 percentage point to the EV.

With a Queen of hearts side count, you can detect even more precisely some situations with a significant advantage.

It is estimated that in a 8D game, you'll play that side bet around 5% of the time, which is pretty good in my opinion!

Here are my questions :

Do you think that exploiting this side bet is worth it ? If so, to what extent ? Is it compensating the bad rules ? What additionnal EV can I expect ?

Bonus : If I use CAC2 instead of HI-LO while adding the side bet play to my game, do you think this game can become very interesting ?

Thanks for your answers!

Hi Econ,

I have been analyzing the conditions of your game using CVData. According to the analysis, for 8D, H17, DOA, DAS, SPA1, SPL3, NS, 6/8 using 22 indices (R22) and play-all WITHOUT Lucky Ladies,
I obtained the following SCOREs:

1) Hi-Lo

Spread 1-16: 8.403
Spread 1-20: 10.147

2) CAC2

Spread 1-16: 9.709
Spread 1-20: 11.678

Clearly, the conditions without any kind of "Wonging" are terrible for either of the two systems.
However, as can be seen from the SCOREs, CAC2 is 15%/16% better than Hi-Lo.

For "Lucky Ladies" (LL), we should consider two indices: EM (EV Maximizer) and RA (Risk Averse).

Using EM is not recommended, at least with Hi-Lo, even though the advantage in this index is approximately 1.3%.

1) Hi-Lo + LL

a) EM = +4

Spread 1-16: 7.508
Spread 1-20: 8.235

As you can see, this index (+4) deteriorates the SCORE, so it should be avoided.

b) RA = +6

Spread 1-16: 10.021
Spread 1-20: 11.237

Therefore, for these conditions and Hi-Lo, the RA-index = +6 should be used.

Let's see what happens with CAC2:

2) CAC2 + LL

a) EM-Index

Spread 1-16: 11.010
Spread 1-20: 11.839

b) RA-Index

Spread 1-16: 12.958
Spread 1-20: 14.218

While it is true that both indices can be used, it is correct to use the RA index.

Sincerely,
Cac

[moo321]

I missed an important detail. The pen on that game is bad. Probably less than $10 an hour for the side bet, and terrible return on the main game. I guess you could wong and get an acceptable return on the main, with a little bit extra from the side bet. So, the EV on that game is pretty bad, although they don't seem to be watching it which is a big plus.

[Econ]

Hi Cacarulo,

Big thanks for sharing your analysis, very interesting! I didn't know about those two indices (EM & RA), but i'll do my research on that. It shows the importance of considering variance for optimal play. I will definitely buy CVData.

Maybe just a last question :

What would you consider a decent/acceptable SCORE ? I know there is probably no universal answer to that, but i'm just curious to know if there is a rule of thumb. It'll also help me set my wonging strategy.

[toolyp]

Hi CaraCULO,

Big thanks for sharing your analysis, very interesting! I didn't know about those two indices (EM & RA), but i'll do my research on that. It shows the importance of considering variance for optimal play. I will definitely buy CVData.

Maybe just a last question :

What would you consider a decent/acceptable SCORE ? I know there is probably no universal answer to that, but i'm just curious to know if there is a rule of thumb. It'll also help me set my wonging strategy.

Imagine what you just did? CaraCULO? Like vaffanculo?! Bad. Worse than sayin Don Caca’ (as Italians abbreviate names affectionately… Cacarulo becomes Caca’). Dont wanna see Caraculo again in public spaces. Now to your question. Don Cacarulo cant give an answer regarding his CACA system. I asked him too.

Then I saw a post of his. He said first 1 billion hands tested. Then he restated 10 billion hands were necessary for a good test. Probably the 1-bill test failed to show success. Only the 10-bill test showed success.

I can guarantee Don Cacarulo has not finished his test in casino. One billion hands takes some 3000 years to play 1000 hnds a day, 365 days a year. I know only one man to live that long - Don “Lucky” Vito. His age always gives him validation in any argument. “ I know this stuff before you was born!” you can hear him say.

[DSchles]

You're about thisclose to being barred from this site. Keep trolling and you can spend the next few months posting your drivel elsewhere.

Don

[iCountNTrack]

Looks like Norm has beat me to it. We are all really trying to help this and don't have time for trolls

[Cacarulo]

Hi Cacarulo,

Big thanks for sharing your analysis, very interesting! I didn't know about those two indices (EM & RA), but i'll do my research on that. It shows the importance of considering variance for optimal play. I will definitely buy CVData.

Maybe just a last question :

What would you consider a decent/acceptable SCORE ? I know there is probably no universal answer to that, but i'm just curious to know if there is a rule of thumb. It'll also help me set my wonging strategy.

It all depends on the casinos you have access to. That game you described, although it's horrible, with a bit of backcounting, a two-hand game, and the LL bet as a bonus, is playable.
Acceptable SCOREs depend on many things, but for a play-all game, we're talking about 25 and up. Anyway, it's very personal.

Sincerely,
Cac