.
for those who want to make action bets to milk bonuses and promos - this might be useful
it's well known in horse racing that there is a favorite/longshot bias - and it also exists in other sports betting
in the long run the fave - who pays much less - will lose much less than the longshots
because getting paid big is attractive to many bettors while getting paid small is not
per betfirm.com's spread to money line conversion - linked - in Monday night's game the final line on DraftKings per covers.com was -8 spread and -340 money line favoring the Nuggets
if you do the math you will see that based on a team at -8 winning 78.4% of the time there was a small edge to the Nuggets on the money line at -340 per betfirm.com - see link
the Wizard of Odds came up with almost the same figure - 77.8% wins at a spread of -8 - still an edge but slightly smaller - in his Betting the NBA blog
this will happen fairly often in all sports - but always a conversion chart such as the one linked should be consulted
it may not be an attractive bet - but so what - if it gets you your promos and bonuses - and maybe a tiny amount of profit $$$ if you do it enough times
in racing, the longer the shot - the worse the long term r.o.i. - very likely the same in sports - the worse the payout, the larger the hypothetical edge - i.e. greater edge on -450 then -340 - but still pretty small
in racing there is a gigantic takeout that will crush maybe 98% of the players no matter what they do - not so in sports betting - substantial - but nowhere remotely close to racing
if I was doing this - I would only bet on home teams - since I believe an upset is much more likely if the dog is at home
https://www.betfirm.com/nba-point-sp...version-chart/
.
Bookmarks