Are you sure Don about this? For 6D,ENHC,SPL3,LS I'm getting "-1" for the surrender index.
Note that BS says to surrender.
Sincerely,Code:77vT Standing = -57.16568050051265% Hitting = -51.49131857625893% Doubling = -103.48841730862026% Splitting = -77.95618196166794% Surrender = -50.00000000000000% +------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+ | TC | Probability | Standing | Hitting | Doubling | Splitting | 1 | 2 | +------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+ | 13 | 0.00004918113987484 | -0.65513586054665640 | -0.65934054854100166 | -1.31868109708200332 | -1.02193424391275012 | R | S | | 12 | 0.00009528802310021 | -0.64747235150598414 | -0.64934898184126144 | -1.29869796368252288 | -1.00140411367157944 | R | S | | 11 | 0.00022030456054112 | -0.64001098074574470 | -0.63936413224542776 | -1.27872826449085553 | -0.98139342340944513 | R | H | | 10 | 0.00044669488001704 | -0.63277116256821120 | -0.62919101392171628 | -1.25838202784343256 | -0.96193791595236233 | R | H | | 9 | 0.00090553571132447 | -0.62573725653321011 | -0.61895342704953493 | -1.23790685409906986 | -0.94297157417124078 | R | H | | 8 | 0.00178681713232004 | -0.61891112760837086 | -0.60856387415778357 | -1.21712774831556714 | -0.92446077254030878 | R | H | | 7 | 0.00335585576980620 | -0.61231405986982934 | -0.59810285047958911 | -1.19620570095917822 | -0.90647414105315383 | R | H | | 6 | 0.00609790085803137 | -0.60608417010786686 | -0.58768992338332937 | -1.17537984676665874 | -0.88939011271705015 | R | H | | 5 | 0.01121562142596041 | -0.60002300190805447 | -0.57714614292388289 | -1.15429228584776578 | -0.87265978958217516 | R | H | | 4 | 0.01974806127380787 | -0.59427633876367858 | -0.56654211701101520 | -1.13308423402203040 | -0.85666167631921109 | R | H | | 3 | 0.03473402679886555 | -0.58879320354071274 | -0.55576086391880986 | -1.11192729487700537 | -0.84074001670161358 | R | H | | 2 | 0.06104036524316535 | -0.58363241600632176 | -0.54455111731612638 | -1.09075346264876205 | -0.82406363494080737 | R | H | | 1 | 0.11047331143280217 | -0.57867842424897409 | -0.53325336446906058 | -1.06944088781744484 | -0.80664149238712179 | R | H | | 0 | 0.23473474578323381 | -0.57369724133226663 | -0.52114911519171203 | -1.04660491979659120 | -0.78828079481625535 | R | H | | -1 | 0.21114571608455926 | -0.56978274853396793 | -0.51093442223509178 | -1.02749502336470466 | -0.77262372353259146 | R | H | | -2 | 0.13521587918273845 | -0.56582516386457538 | -0.49987741802541125 | -1.00748734803108508 | -0.75534109391477799 | | H | | -3 | 0.07350057638861991 | -0.56187320684918240 | -0.48787593187154193 | -0.98595251208147394 | -0.73684062971725206 | | H | +------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
Cac
You seem to be referring to ES, but I didn't see anything in the discussion that mentioned that. When the OP said he'd normally surrender 14 vs. T at +3, that was further evidence to me that he was talking about late surrender.
More importantly, did you get the book?
Don
The late surrender EV = -.5388, not -.5. Why? If dealer has BJ player cannot surrender and loses 1 unit. Player can surrender if dealer doesn't have BJ in which case loss = .5 units.
Early surrender EV = -.5 since player can surrender whether or not dealer has BJ.
My approximate indexes at various pens:
A graph of the values would likely smoothen the values a little by use of interpolation.
************************************************** ****************************************
7-7 versus 10, 6 decks ENHC (LS = late surrender, ES = early surrender)
************************************************** ****************************************Code:Cards remaining (before up card) LS (after up card) ES (after up card) 286 = 5 1/2 decks RC >= +13; TC ~ 2.4 RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.3 260 = 5 decks RC >= +11; TC ~ +2.2 RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.4 208 = 4 decks RC >= +9; TC ~ +2.3 RC >= -5; TC ~ -1.3 156 = 3 decks RC >= +7; TC ~ +2.3; RC >= -4; TC ~ -1.3 104 = 2 decks RC >= +5; TC ~ +2.5; RC >= -2; TC ~ -1.0 52 = 1 deck RC >= +3; TC ~ +3; RC >= -1; TC ~ -1 26 = 1/2 deck RC >= +2; TC ~ +4; RC >= 0; TC ~ 0
Not to disparage TC but the goalposts are movable when a constant TC index is assumed as statistically best.
I just included a couple of pages on my website to show this graphically using overall EV for HiLo and KO where graphs for RC and TC are generated from the exact same data.
http://www.bjstrat.net/HiLo_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html
http://www.bjstrat.net/KO_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html
k_c
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