Originally Posted by
PinkChip
Due to my simulations done with CVData, your suggestions regarding Double/Hit hard 10-11 vs. soft 17 seem correct,
but the difference in EV is very tiny (just about 0.02 percent, for both S17 and H17 cases). I have not taken a look
at the variance but would suggest that hitting is better due to lower variance, even in the H17 case.
Furthermore, the sim runs indicate that versus dealer 19, not only 15 and above should be surrendered,
but also 13 and 14 at least. Even for 12 the difference is again so small that I would do it, because surrender lowers variance.
These are values I get dealt for 14 vs. 19 from top of full single deck:
Code:
T-4 vs. T-9
hit: -44.78%, surrender: -50.00%
9-5 vs. T-9
hit: -45.73%, surrender: -50.00%
8-6 vs. T-9
hit: -47.44%, surrender: -50.00%
7-7 vs. T-9
hit: -51.25%, surrender: -50.00%
T-4 vs. 8-A
hit: -46.19%, surrender: -50.00%
9-5 vs. 8-A
hit: -47.16%, surrender: -50.00%
8-6 vs. 8-A
hit: -48.88%, surrender: -50.00%
7-7 vs. 8-A
hit: -52.78%, surrender: -50.00%
These are values I get dealt for 15 vs. 19 from top of full single deck:
Code:
T-5 vs. T-9
hit: -51.98%, surrender: -50.00%
9-6 vs. T-9
hit: -51.63%, surrender: -50.00%
8-7 vs. T-9
hit: -47.46%, surrender: -50.00%
T-5 vs. 8-A
hit: -53.24%, surrender: -50.00%
9-6 vs. 8-A
hit: -52.97%, surrender: -50.00%
8-7 vs. 8-A
hit: -48.80%, surrender: -50.00%
On the other hand, I assume that surrendering 17 and above, whilst mathematically advantageous, would look quite suspicious.
I'm sick of losing to your pat hands?
k_c
Bookmarks