You’ll need to explain it to me like I’m a 6 year old.
Player gets
1st of 384 cards
Dealer gets second card of 383 cards remaining
Player gets third card of 382 cards remaining
What am I missing?
Oh, and yes, I’m stubborn - part of my charm in my business career that helped me a great deal.
Think about it this way, you draw two cards randomly from a shoe, what are the odds of getting a blackjack? The dealer cards are totally irrelevant because you want OVERALL probability not the probability for a given dealer upcard.
To get a BJ, you can have 10,A or A,10 that's why Calc multiplied by 2
Chance favors the prepared mind
You're a post or 2 behind. I confess to exactitude based on dealers hole card not being an ace or face. I agree that dealers hole card is not relevant.
The salient point is player CANNOT get a blackjack until the 3rd card of 382 remaining cards is dealt.
You also said
[/QUOTE]To get a BJ, you can have 10,A or A,10 that's why Calc multiplied by 2
Seems to me that I did that as well.
I think you're missing something. You have to evaluate when the dealer's upcard is an Ace, a Face or Other! If you do it this way, the sum of the conditional probabilities would be as follows:
(32*31*96 + 32*96*95 + 32*256*96 + 96*32*31 + 96*95*32 + 96*256*32) / (384*383*382) = 0.041775
which matches the other calculation.
Sincerely,
Cac
Just up for a few minutes. Interesting - Evaluated with dealer up card not being an ace or face. I’m neither a stats guy nor a math guy, but am a numbers guy. I didn’t feel like going through the exercise of what I perceived to be a longer process. Really very simple.
Never a bad day when you learn s9 etching. Back to hibernation.
Chance favors the prepared mind
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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