If 208 cards are randomly dealt and counted from a 6 deck shoe, running count is +10, and no other cards are specifically removed the probabilities of each up card would be p[1] through p[10] below.
Code:
Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1}
Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}
No subgroup (removals) are defined
Decks: 6 (possible input for cards remaining: 1 to 312)
Cards remaining before up card (current = 156, no input = no change): 104
Initial running count (full shoe): 0
Running count (before up card is dealt, no input defaults to 0): 10
Computing.....please wait.....
Number of subsets for above conditions: 37
Prob of running count 10 with above removals from 6 decks: 0.02147
p[1] 0.08657 p[2] 0.06734 p[3] 0.06734 p[4] 0.06734 p[5] 0.06734
p[6] 0.06734 p[7] 0.07682 p[8] 0.07682 p[9] 0.07682 p[10] 0.34628
An estimate of dealer probabilities based on dealing from a shoe using those rank probabilities for both dealer standing on and hitting soft 17 are below.
Code:
Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer stands on soft 17....
Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1}
Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}
Subgroup removals: None
Running count (before up card is dealt): 10 Cards remaining: 104
Up card 17 18 19 20 21 BJ BUST
1 0.1125 0.1217 0.1223 0.1243 0.0474 0.3496 0.1222
2 0.1288 0.1221 0.1267 0.1230 0.1198 0.0000 0.3795
3 0.1221 0.1196 0.1155 0.1199 0.1165 0.0000 0.4065
4 0.1205 0.1086 0.1117 0.1093 0.1133 0.0000 0.4366
5 0.1125 0.1119 0.1081 0.1007 0.1015 0.0000 0.4653
6 0.1714 0.0951 0.0969 0.0930 0.0909 0.0000 0.4528
7 0.4002 0.1369 0.0683 0.0705 0.0666 0.0000 0.2574
8 0.1209 0.3903 0.1295 0.0609 0.0631 0.0000 0.2353
9 0.1131 0.1027 0.3846 0.1232 0.0546 0.0000 0.2218
10 0.1062 0.1038 0.1052 0.3677 0.0292 0.0874 0.2004
Overall 0.1394 0.1324 0.1294 0.1944 0.0649 0.0605 0.2790
Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit
Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer hits soft 17....
Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1}
Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}
Subgroup removals: None
Running count (before up card is dealt): 10 Cards remaining: 104
Up card 17 18 19 20 21 BJ BUST
1 0.0535 0.1317 0.1315 0.1336 0.0567 0.3496 0.1433
2 0.1200 0.1237 0.1280 0.1244 0.1212 0.0000 0.3827
3 0.1149 0.1208 0.1166 0.1209 0.1176 0.0000 0.4092
4 0.1128 0.1100 0.1128 0.1105 0.1144 0.0000 0.4395
5 0.1083 0.1126 0.1087 0.1014 0.1022 0.0000 0.4669
6 0.1174 0.1044 0.1053 0.1015 0.0995 0.0000 0.4719
7 0.4002 0.1369 0.0683 0.0705 0.0666 0.0000 0.2574
8 0.1209 0.3903 0.1295 0.0609 0.0631 0.0000 0.2353
9 0.1131 0.1027 0.3846 0.1232 0.0546 0.0000 0.2218
10 0.1062 0.1038 0.1052 0.3677 0.0292 0.0874 0.2004
Overall 0.1287 0.1342 0.1310 0.1961 0.0666 0.0605 0.2828
Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit
k_c
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