If my game has surrender, I only see the hit/stand choice for a third card or more. So I ALWAYS play hit/stand 16v10 based on the index. Zero cover.
Is this a safe strategy? Or should I worry.
Nope. I have heard that surveillance looks for players who sometimes hit and sometimes stand 16v10. But with surrender, I always surrender 16v10, if it’s from my initial two cards. So I don’t make the hit/stand choice that often. If I start with 6v10. Hit. Receive a ten. Then I will need to make the hit/stand choice. At this point, do I need to worry that they are watching?
If you are counting with a bet spread and in fear of heat, you could always stand on 16 vs. 10. For high counts (with large bets), it is the correct decision anyway. For neutral decks, it is a borderline decision. Only for negative counts (min bets), hitting is better.
I was just joking with you. In my experience just play your best game and play aggressive. Keep your sessions short, don't play between shift changes and don't wear out your over all welcome and you'll be fine no matter what strategies you do. The worst thing you can do to yourself is create imaginary heat. With all the stuff going on in a casino survellance has to monitor, it's highly unlikely surveillance is going to zone in on you based on how you played a single hand.
So my question is really, would surveillance watch me for hit/stand decision based on the count, since due to surrender, it doesn’t happen that much?
Without surrender, 16v10 happens a lot - at least (10/169)(4/13) of the time. I would think it’s worthwhile for them to watch how a player reacts, since it should happen several times in a shoe. With surrender, it won’t happen that much - maybe once or twice. It will take a long time to get a credible sample size.
Your approximation (the 6-deck, two-card frequency is 0.0168) is just for the two-card holding. But, you have to make the decision for multi-card as well, and that happens another 0.0345 of the time. So, if you play 100 hands an hour, without surrender, you'll face the decision just over five times.
Don
Ok. So my mistake - multi card 16v10 actually happens about twice as often as initial two card 16v10, so the question is even MORE important…are They watching my 16v10 decision, or should I just play correctly and not worry?
Personally, I just play correctly and I have not been backed off yet. So I will continue to play aggressively unless the AP group here advises otherwise.
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