Hello all,
A simple question I should know the answer to:
One of Norm's calculators asks for 4 pieces of data such as "player advantage" and "average bet size" and "number of hands played" and "desired outome in units," I believe.
I am getting 'tripped up' with advantage vs. E.V., I think. For example, if a card counter says she has a .4% advantage, doesnt that mean she can expect to profit, over the long run, about $.40 per $100 that she wagers?
If that is true, lets say she manages to generate the .4% advantage with a $10 - $40 bet spread.
BUT WOULDN'T HER ADVANTAGE CHANGE BASED ON HER BET SPREAD? In other words, if she applied her same count system but used a $10 - $60 spread instead of a $10 - $40 spread, wouldn't her advantage increase (along with her variance)?
So, are variance and an insufficient bankroll, along with heat from pit personnel, the 'only' things stopping counters from using, say, in the above example, a $10 - $120 bet spread?
So, with Norm's calculator, isn't what one enters for 'player advantage' contingent upon what she enters for "average bet size?"
Finally, if I can predict the presence of an Ace with an average accuracy of 11.46%, that does NOT mean that my advantage (just when predicting Aces and therefore not taking into account flat betting the 'rent bets) is 11.46%, correct? Rather my advantage is about .(1146 X .51) + (-.005 X 'I forget'), or about 5.00%, correct? If that is indeed correct, is there a term for the .1146?
Thank you all in advance!
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