When we have multiple hands, we need to consider the covariance issue rigorously. I need to soften a little bit what I said earlier. Maybe you are right.
The key to beat the game of blackjack is the bet spread. When you have multiple simultaneous hands, you will not have the correct spread to beat it.
Last edited by aceside; 03-08-2021 at 08:25 AM.
I realize you know more about this than novices like Stanford Wong or me, but just in case other readers on the forum, who aren't as bright as you, would like to read about the math, you can find the information in Wong's Pro BJ, pages 203-204 and pages 208-211, and then in BJA3, pages 24-26, where, of course, I basically say the same thing.
Don
HUUUUGE FAN my friend and long time Packers fan My second favorite sport. I always loved it, but I really got into the ins and outs of it in 2014 when I met Dan Gordon and started learning sports betting with him. I remember in 2016 I was in Aruba for the Superbowl between Denver and Carolina. I spent almost the entire day talking to dan because he was urging me to bet the line for denver (cant remember exactly but i think his trigger point was at +3 or something) and I kept telling him he was nuts. I honestly thought cam newton at that time was unstoppable. Not only I didnt listen to him, but during the game (at the hotel lobby packed with americans) I placed a live bet in favor of Carolina when they were down and the line went +. He had a pretty good laugh when I told him about the money I lost haha. That was a great day for him and his service.
I miss him a lot and I always remember him when the football season starts.
Let me ask Dog Hand to do some simulations for me. Dog Hand has been a reputable mathematician. Can you help? Consider a six-deck shoe with strip rules. Below is the card counting strategy I propose to play solo:
1. If TC<=+1, play one hand.
2. If TC>+1 and Ace/Ten>0.25, play one hand.
3. If TC>+1 and Ace/ten<=0.25, play two hands.
Use the Kelley Criterion to dictate the bet size for one or two hands blackjack, that is, if the bet size is $100 for one-hand, the it is $75 for each hand of the two-hands. Can you help simulate this to find out if this strategy works or not?
Bookmarks