Ace Prediction Math

[DSchles]

I have thought about this again. The player’s 25.5% advantage is based on the assumption that the dealer’s probability of getting an ace is 1/13, but now the situation is the dealer’s probability of getting an ace is 50%. What is the expected return for this particular situation? This has been bothering me for two days. Thank you in advance.

That's a completely different question. Your original version was that you could predict, with 50% accuracy, that YOU would receive the ace. You didn't say that if you didn't get it, the DEALER would! But that math is simple, no? 50% of the time, you have a 51% edge and 50% of the time, the dealer has a 37% edge. So, your overall edge is simply .50*.51 + .50*(-.37) = +.07 = 7%.

Don

[aceside]

That's a completely different question. Your original version was that you could predict, with 50% accuracy, that YOU would receive the ace. You didn't say that if you didn't get it, the DEALER would! But that math is simple, no? 50% of the time, you have a 51% edge and 50% of the time, the dealer has a 37% edge. So, your overall edge is simply .50*.51 + .50*(-.37) = +.07 = 7%.

Don

Very nice of you. Now I can take a rest. Thank you again.