Which deviations are most valuable?

[aceside]

Just because insurance may be rare (1 in 13 hands doesn't seem rare to me, but that's beside the point) doesn't mean it's not valuable.

Insurance is offered 1 in 13 hands, but you take the insurance bet when the true count is above 3. I mean this is very rare compared to 16v10 when the true count is zero. I still trust myself, beside, I believe the surrender option is the most important deviation.

[PitBoss321]

I mean this is very rare compared to 16v10 when the true count is zero. I still trust myself, beside, I believe the surrender option is the most important deviation.

If you keep "trusting yourself" and not the math you are not going to be a successful card counter. I want to be nice, to help you out, but that mindset will destroy any chance of winning money consistently.

As for surrender, late surrender adds 0.07% to your edge off the top, it is a valuable rule if you can get it. (https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...le-variations/) It's hard to compare to deviations, especially since different bet spreads, rules will result in different edges, different values for insurance. But both are valuable.

Can you also run your CVCX to find out: If we flat bet, how much edge can a player gain from playing deviations only? I do not have CVCX. thank you in advance.

In the same situation I simmed before, flat betting with the most valuable (I think) 25 indices still has you at a negative EV, -0.2%. If you wong out, leave the table when the count gets to a true -1, you can make money flat betting though. 10K bankroll and 2% risk of ruin lets you bet $20, for $7.25 an hour.

One issue with this is the N0 (https://www.blackjackapprenticeship....advantage-play) Your bankroll will swing a lot with that play. After 500 hours, you could be anywhere from $10,000 up to $3000 down.