I would like to get details on FBM system so I can run Correlation Coefficients on it

[Freightman]

BJAnalyst
I failed to further advise the strategies designed in when and how to shift between upper and lower ramp. Simply use a rotating system for same. The true power Forms part of FBM ASC advanced, when one has mastered evaluation of true count.

[bjanalyst]

BJAnalyst
I failed to further advise the strategies designed in when and how to shift between upper and lower ramp. Simply use a rotating system for same. The true power Forms part of FBM ASC advanced, when one has mastered evaluation of true count.

The game I play is six decks, five decks dealt, S17, DAS, LS, Super 4 and Lucky Ladies offered.

And the LL and Super 4 bets add to my advantage and winnings since the 5m9c with the KO and AA89mTc helps with both of these side bets.

In Pennsylvania the law states that all casinos must offer Late Surrender and dealer stands on Soft 17. So that is the only game I analyzed and you should be avoiding the H17 game in favor of the S17 game anyhow..

But the game you play is H17 and ES10 (early surrender against Dealers up card of 10 I assume) and the I18 does not take into account any side bets anyhow or surrender. I will skip the Fab 4 surrender analysis since I do not have ES10 EoR. I guess ES10 advantage makes up for H17 disadvantage. The game you play is very strange indeed.

One more point, the CC or simulations only show power as if each system was played perfectly by computer. The CC or sims do not take into account accuracy or ease of use. For humans you need to consider accuracy and ease of use.

Accuracy refers to accuracy of the true count and any side counts.

I believe your FBM is balanced with a pivot of a true count of zero as compared to the KO with a pivot of a true count of 4. The KO gives more accurate true counts at 3, 4, 5, and 6 than a balanced count system does and that is where the accuracy of your true counts are most important for both betting and playing strategy changes.

Also I believe you use an ASC which is also inaccurate since it depends on an estimate of decks played whereas plus/minus side counts are exact.

So already your FBM system losses on accuracy of important true counts of 3, 4, 5 and 6 and on accuracy of the Ace side count.

Now consider ease of use. The FBM is probably a level 2 count which is much more difficult to keep than the level one primacy KO count. Also if you are using an ASC that is also much more difficult to keep than a plus/minus count and as mentioned above ASC it less accurate than plus/minus count which are exact and do not depend on decks played.

So I believe your FBM system loses on accuracy and ease of use.

For power I will concentrate on the CC for the I18 less splitting Tens. I will ignore surrender and the Fab 4 since I do not have EoR for ES10.

So I just want the FBM system for the sixteen plays which are the I18 less splitting Tens. And if you can give me S17 for the FBM for these sixteen plays then great, and if not, then just give me H17 that you have.

I think I included some H17 EoR in my Excel program so I may be able to calculate CC for the H17 game if that is all you have and the only real differences between H17 and S17 indices occur when the dealer's up card is a six or Ace anyhow. I can use S17 EoR for all other situations without much loss in accuracy.

I will be skipping analysis of surrender since the game you play is ES10 which I do not have the EoR for.

The FBM CC of these 16 plays when compared to the CC of HO2 w ASC and CC of KO w AA89mTc and 5m7c for these same plays will give a very good indication of where the power of your system stands.

If you give me FBM for H17 then I believe I do have EoR for the I18 hard 10 v A double, hard 11 v A double and hit/stand hard 12 v 6 which I can then use to calculated CC for the FBM system and CC for HO2 w ASC and CC for KO with AA89mTc and 5m9c. I can use S17 EoR for the other 13 I18 (excludes splitting Tens and the three I18 with dealer's up card of Ace or six) that I will be analyzing since if the dealer's up card is not a six of Ace the difference between H17 and S17 EoR are negligible.

Just let me know if you are giving me these 16 FBM I18 for H17 or S17 game.

[bjanalyst]

I looked at my Excel file and I did enter EoR for h12 v 6 H17, h10 v A h17 and h11 v A H17 so I am good to analyze FBM H17 game

Although EoR for H17 differ from S17 when dealer's up card (duc) is a 2, 3, 4, 5 in addition to a six and Ace, the difference in EoR between H17 and S17 when duc is a 2, 3, 4 or 5 is negligible. This is because getting a soft 17 with duc = 2, 3, 4 or 5 is a second order probability involving more than two cards. With and Ace or six all you need is one card to get soft 17, with duc = A you just need a six in the hole and with a duc = 6 \you just need an Ace in the hole then you have a soft 17 which must be hit under H17 rule.

With duc = 2, 3, 4 or 5 you would need three or more cards to get a soft 17 which the dealer would then hit under H17.

Here are some low probability three card combinations for the dealer to have soft 17 which dealer must then hit under H17 which would make it different from S17 and so would result in slightly different EoR.

if duc = 5 you would need an Ace in the hole followed by dealer hitting with another Ace to get soft 17 which dealer must then hit under H17.
if duc = 4 you would need an two in the hole followed by dealer hitting with an Ace to get soft 17 which dealer must then hit under H17.
if duc = 3 you would need a three in the hole followed by dealer hitting with an Ace to get soft 17 which dealer must then hit under H17.
if duc = 2 you would need a four in the hole followed by dealer hitting with an Ace to get soft 17 which dealer must then hit under H17.

These second order probabilities leading to a difference in S17 and H17 EoR when duc is a 2, 3, 4 or 5 are relatively insignificant.

And higher order probabilities where the dealer gets four or more cards to get soft 17 are even rarer.

In my Excel program I have included EoR for H17 only for duc of six or Ace.

I will use S17 EoR where duc is a 2, 3, 4 or 5 for the I18 and your FBM system.

The differences will be insignificant and will still show the relative power of your FBM system with the 16 of the I18 plays for H17.

I can also analyzed and optimize your FBM and side counts for the S17 game which I have all of the EoR for and compare it to HO2 w ASC and KO w AA89mTc and 5m9c for S17.

With CC comparisons I do not even need your indices.

All I need from you is the tag values of your primary FBM count and the tag vales of any side counts you use with the FBM and I can do my CC comparisons to HO2 w ASC and to KO with AA89mTc and 5m9c for the I18 minus splitting Tens.