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Originally Posted by
Blackjack Newbie
I am new to Blackjack and had never seen live Blackjack before and I thought this would be a good thread....:/
I think what people are kind of off-put by is that this forum is mostly people who are either advantage-players, people who want to be or are studying to become advantage-players, or recreational non-APs who nevertheless know the game very well (and who know they are long-term losers). But all of the people in those three sets know and avoid mental weaknesses like the gambler's fallacy, and know that short-term variance is meaningless statistically... none are just there for the thrill of gambling and giving away our money to casinos as fast as we can.
Originally Posted by
Blackjack Newbie
Blackjack looks incredibly easy judging by the Dealer losing four times in a row
Your statement betrays a massive misunderstanding in the meaninglessness of the short-term. Depending on number of decks and rules, if you are playing perfect basic strategy the dealer will win ~48% of hands, the player will win ~43% of hands, the the remaining ~9% will push. Those numbers don't change just because you saw a dealer lose 4 times in a row at some point. Another time the dealer might win 4 or more in a row; in fact, it is much more likely he will win 4 in a row than lose 4 in a row. But none of that matters, because when enough hands are played, the dealer will be winning more hands than you at the rate that the statistics outline.
Originally Posted by
Blackjack Newbie
The Gambler keeps winning, but keeps playing half his winnings. This is a bad strategy, right?
Correct; any progression system of betting is a bad strategy. If you are not playing with an advantage (such as by counting cards) any betting strategy is a bad strategy other than not playing at all. If you insist on playing, the best strategy to lose as little money as possible is to flat-bet the table minimum and to make sure you play perfect basic strategy. But better to avoid the casino entirely, especially if you find yourself getting off on the dopamine rush that could lead to a dangerous addiction.
If you're new to Blackjack and want to learn how to make sure the house has the smallest advantage against you as possible, I'd recommend reading Eliot Jacobson's book "The Blackjack Zone" which is an excellent primer on blackjack and the statistics involved, how to spot a bad game, and how to avoid bad thinking such as "that player took the dealer's bust card." At the end of the book, it talks a bit about advantage play.
At a minimum, learn perfect basic strategy, learn that luck does not exist, and remember that blackjack is not beatable (even with perfect basic strategy) except with a lot of work (learning and mastering card counting is the most famous method) and a ton of self-discipline and control. If you're here to gamble, it might not be the right forum, and you can expect the regulars to dump on you non-stop; they're probably doing you a big favor.
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