Originally Posted by
Freightman
Zee TCD
Since you don’t use software, use simple math as it pertains to Kelly betting, which you can easily use on the fly - further understanding that the max bet arrived it may Exceed table max or simply be to high for casino comfort in any event.
Forget the 50k bankroll, you’ve recently announced your bankroll as 80k, so let’s use that. Kelly (developed for stock and modified for BJ, is skewed in any event - basically says to bet advantage x bankroll. So, full Kelly on 80k bankroll with 1% advantage = $800, 2% = $1600 and so forth. Full Kelly projects ror as about 13.5%. This variance roller coaster is not for the faint of heart and can lead to absolute wild swings. Half Kelly would reduce the 1% advantage bet above from 800 and 400, and would reduce for to under 2%. Quarter Kelly would reduce that to a significantly lower ror, not in front of my computer.
So, to answer your question - are you asking about double deck, or 6 deck, both of which you play.
For 6deck, assume max of true 6 with house edge of .5. This equates to 3% advantage, or $2400 full Kelly. Quarter Kelly would be $600 - zee, would you bet $600-don’t think so, the answer is basically what you want.
Let’s look momentarily double deck with true 12. I was once in this position having just lost a Max bet decimating my chip stack where my opening min bet was $25. I debated (Quickly) the amount of my steamer bet. I quickly considered table max 0f 2x1000, well within quarter Kelly guidelines. I discounted that even considering house tolerance, concerned that house assets would be unleashed against me - 86 me with prejudice, and thus, I opted for the more conservative and modest thrust of 2x500 heads up bet.
Regardless, in your case, the max bet for with low ror is meaningless since you wont bet it anyways. Nothing wrong with that - simply a matter Of what your goals are. What you’re better off doing is strengthening your ramps, which are still weak. You’ll get a lot more mileage out of that.
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