Flat bet and counting . How much Buy insurance at TC3 + add to overall EV.

[Tarzan]

You obviously need to find someplace else other than anyplace that would flat bet you, half shoe you, fiddle fuck you, or anything like that, unless you're good with having absolutely no shot at making money in the long haul, that is. It's hard enough already without them making life rough for you. Maybe the pricks that flat bet you won't survive to be around for reopening, who knows, but don't try to justify flat betting. Find elsewhere, maybe dress in drag to end up looking a lot like Julie Andrews, and avoid cashing in or out for more than $10,000?

[Eliot]

If you play perfect basic strategy and can get about 75% penetration (achievable for a flat bettor), you can cut that -0.182 edge down to zero using the Insurance count as described here: https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...jack-insurance

Just to be clear, my article does not say you can get the edge down to zero using the insurance count. The TLDR version is contained in the last two paragraphs of the article above.

[Eliot]

If you play perfect basic strategy and can get about 75% penetration (achievable for a flat bettor), you can cut that -0.182 edge down to zero using the Insurance count as described here: https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...jack-insurance

I just want to add that there are many side bets that do allow a counter to flat bet the main game and gain an edge. Many years ago, let's call it 2003, I advised a young counter who could afford a max bet of $200 that he would make more per hour with much lower variance by flat betting $50 per hand and playing the Royal 20's side bet, with a $50 max bet, at the Plaza. He played daily at the Plaza for almost 3 months before getting backed off. Last I heard, there were still casinos offering this bet.

Royal 20's is the counter's dream version of Lucky Ladies:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...kjack-side-bet

[tomf23]

I just want to add that there are many side bets that do allow a counter to flat bet the main game and gain an edge. Many years ago, let's call it 2003, I advised a young counter who could afford a max bet of $200 that he would make more per hour with much lower variance by flat betting $50 per hand and playing the Royal 20's side bet, with a $50 max bet, at the Plaza. He played daily at the Plaza for almost 3 months before getting backed off. Last I heard, there were still casinos offering this bet.

Royal 20's is the counter's dream version of Lucky Ladies:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/side-...kjack-side-bet

do you know how much he won off of this?

I remember around that time period before i got into poker having a very small bankroll. The plaza had an amazing double deck game with good pen, s17, das and rsa. and there were a bunch of tables of it.

Today one crap DD game with 50 percent pen or less.

[Eliot]

do you know how much he won off of this?

I remember around that time period before i got into poker having a very small bankroll. The plaza had an amazing double deck game with good pen, s17, das and rsa. and there were a bunch of tables of it.

Today one crap DD game with 50 percent pen or less.

I don't recall, but I do recall it was much better than the EV from straight counting. From the article on R20 I quoted, the return is about $150 per 100 hands from playing R20, $50 on both Player and Dealer whenever the count justified it. By comparison, a $100 maximum wager on blackjack in a great double deck game returns about $60 per 100 hands.

I recall that the graph this player showed me of his results over the previous full year showed huge volatility UNTIL he started playing R20, at which point the graph became pretty much a straight line with positive slope. At the time I was mostly hole-carding 3CP, which was far tougher than it should have been. If I had any sense, I should have also played R20. But the lure of hole-carding was huge.

[G Man]

Just to be clear, my article does not say you can get the edge down to zero using the insurance count. The TLDR version is contained in the last two paragraphs of the article above.

I never said the insurance count could cut the edge to zero by itself, what I said is that for our poster who was already able to cut down to house edge to 0.182%, the use of the insurance count in this particular situation could cut it down to zero.

[Eliot]

I never said the insurance count could cut the edge to zero by itself, what I said is that for our poster who was already able to cut down to house edge to 0.182%, the use of the insurance count in this particular situation could cut it down to zero.

Okay, I don't see how, as my results show that Insurance can cut the edge by an additional 0.10% in the best case scenario. But, if you'd like to share your reasoning, I'd certainly be open to it. Of course, the least bit of Wonging in/out or 2-1 bet spread would do it.

[G Man]

To compute the profitability from card counting the Insurance bet, I ran four simulations. These simulations were for 1-deck, 2-deck, 6-deck and 8-deck games. In single-deck blackjack, I assumed the player played head’s-up against the dealer and that five rounds were dealt between shuffles. For the multi-deck games I assumed a relatively deep placement for the cut card. The following table summarizes the results of my simulations:
Simulation Results: 100M Shoes

Your simulation shows that using the Insurance Count would net a profit of $18.24 per 100 hands for the $100 flat bettor in a DD game. If our poster was able to cut the HE to -0.182%, that means is expected loss for 100 rounds flat betiing $100 is exactly ($18.20). If you add the results, ($18.20)+ $18.24= $0.04 profit per 100 rounds. This looks to me like playing even with the house. No?

[Eliot]

Your simulation shows that using the Insurance Count would net a profit of $18.24 per 100 hands for the $100 flat bettor in a DD game. If our poster was able to cut the HE to -0.182%, that means is expected loss for 100 rounds flat betiing $100 is exactly ($18.20). If you add the results, ($18.20)+ $18.24= $0.04 profit per 100 rounds. This looks to me like playing even with the house. No?

What you are missing here is that you can only wager 1/2 of your main bet on insurance, so your actual profit is only $9.12 for insurance per 100 hands. If your flat bet on the main game is $100, then your insurance wager is $50. Please read the final two paragraphs of the article. Sorry for any confusion I may have caused.

[G Man]

What you are missing here is that you can only wager 1/2 of your main bet on insurance, so your actual profit is only $9.12 for insurance per 100 hands. If your flat bet on the main game is $100, then your insurance wager is $50. Please read the final two paragraphs of the article. Sorry for any confusion I may have caused.

Oh! I see, that's a different story. When you write "Profit (in units)", you mean "per units wagered on the Insurance Bet" and not "profits in units per unit bets". So, in this particular example, we can conclude that the poster will get back half of his loss from the negative EV of this particular game. So much for trying to play an even game flat betting... :-)