Originally Posted by
Freightman
Please note that I have simmed nothing, and that my comments are off the cuff.
I think what it comes down to is what your goals are. You’ve made it quite clear that your long term goal is longevity to the extreme. Some might call this “aspiring to mediocrity.” Personally, whatever floats your boat is fine with me.
So, let me play devils advocate. You’re advocating that a 50 unit trip roll is better than a 100 unit bankroll, and with either roll, you can achieve a 1 unit per hour EV with minimal ROR. Further, you are espousing this feat with medium rules, 4.5/6 deck pen, 1-4 spread and utilizing Outbound Departure Points.
Okay, I’ll buy it, provided you have an abundance of tables to choose from. Now, I play (almost) all, and I wouldn't start a session with a paltry 100 units, let alone 50 units. So, if I play all, then clearly I don’t have an ODP (I have well timed departures timed depending on factors). Further, if I’m playing heads up, I’m going for HPH.
Now, you’re coined a new phrase - optimization versus optimal play. Sorry, but that’s horseshit. You’ve also espoused that 50 and 100 unit trip rolls are infinite - also horseshit. Sorry to say it, but you’re last paragraph is also - horseshit.
1 unit per hour EV is equivalent to old philosophies espousing increase of 1 unit for increase in true count, which is now known to be far from optimal. I’m not going to get into my style of play, suffice it to say that
1. With a shortage of tables, Im not going for optimal departure points with a 1-4 spread
2. Capitalized well, heads up maximizing HPH, I can achieve significant returns far exceeding 1 unit per hour
3. Maximizing HPH, I can easily overcome long term variance
4. And Of course, I need to say something to earn me that unhelpful, an experienced player such as yourself may well discover methodologies allowing you to reduce that negative variance - I know that I have.
To summarize, you are not maximing EV.
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