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Thread: Help interpreting heat at my local game

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  1. #1


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    I've been playing the same local game for 2 years, first at low stakes, then higher, but still nothing big (no bets over $150). I play rated and have had almost no heat at all in those 2 years, until this week.

    Early in the week, I played (unrated) at a neighboring casino for the first time and had some heat but no back-off.

    Then the next night, I played my home casino and two things happened:

    1) I was max betting at the end of the shoe, then dropped to table min at the shuffle (40:1 ratio). Within about 3 min, security came to the table and joked about needing my ID because I looked too young to gamble (I don't). He said "just kidding, I'm just here to watch the game" and he stuck around for a few rounds and left.

    2) A bit later, at another table, a dealer I'd never seen before tapped in. I'd never seen him, but he didn't seem new, as he was a very good dealer (I should emphasize that I know all the dealers on this shift at this store); he even gave a 5/6 cut which is better than most dealers at this store give. When several 2s came out in a round, he commented on how many 2s were now left in the shoe. Then about halfway through the shoe, as the count was rising (and my bets too), he blurted out, at me: "where's <local specialty grocery store>?" I told him, vaguely, and we went on. As the count rose to +5 and my max bets went out, he started talking to the table about how he used to work in surveillance and the first thing they learn is how to count cards so they can catch "cheaters" (dick). Like an idiot, I asked how they know when someone's counting, and he gave me an accurate answer. I asked what they did when they caught someone and he said they get flat-bet. Then I said I bet they didn't get many people "cheating" and he said, "yeah, most don't know how to do it - at least without being obvious." Around then the shoe ended and I went home.

    I don't want to lose this game any sooner than necessary - it's the only one to which I have regular access and I'm not able to travel much. Looking for some veterans to interpret what happened and suggest a strategy for how to avoid a back-off. At this point I'm thinking it may be smart to go in for a short session and play a break-even spread, or even flat-bet, and see what happens - put on a show for them, maybe play a few side bets, and make them re-think me. Then see what happens and take it from there. Smart?
    If you wanted to keep this home casino, why in the hell are you using a 40:1 spread?
    And then you also drop to table minimum at the shuffle? You forced them to back you off...and they surely will.
    Were your rated a few steak dinners or rooms worth the lost future EV?
    Assume you will eventually be backed off from any game you play...I would rather come out of it with a clean name. Just my opinion.
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 01-13-2020 at 01:14 AM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    Were your rated a few steak dinners or rooms worth the lost future EV?
    I think I'd have been backed off a long time ago if I'd played unrated all this time. Most players at this store use a card, especially the regulars, of which I'm one. It would look really weird to play so much without a card. Plus, I have a nice ploppy-like win/loss record due to rat-holing - that works best when playing rated. I don't do it for the perks, though those are +EV as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Counting_Is_Fun View Post
    Assume you will eventually be backed off from any game you play...I would rather come out of it with a clean name. Just my opinion.
    Everyone has their own priorities - I basically only have this game at the moment, so clean name is a lower priority for me than for most.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Optimus Prime View Post
    I think I'd have been backed off a long time ago if I'd played unrated all this time. Most players at this store use a card, especially the regulars, of which I'm one. It would look really weird to play so much without a card. Plus, I have a nice ploppy-like win/loss record due to rat-holing - that works best when playing rated. I don't do it for the perks, though those are +EV as well.



    Everyone has their own priorities - I basically only have this game at the moment, so clean name is a lower priority for me than for most.
    What you think and what is reality, who knows if you had played unrated from the start. It's up to the player...you made your choice.
    And if this is basically the only game you have...then I would say the 40:1 spread was a huge mistake, regardless if you used a card or not.
    Sounds like you played a few years red chips and they tolerated your spread. Then you say you moved up stakes...and they have had enough of you. Most likely they knew the whole time. Assuming you have a winning game. Why you would be playing a 40:1 spread at the only casino you have I have no idea.
    They are not going to "rethink" you. You have been playing there for years, and they already know you. How many hours have you played at this casino? How much have you won from them?
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 01-13-2020 at 02:07 AM.

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