Need a debate on how to possibly measure all the intangeables of playing NMSE games

[BoSox]

Shit. Clearly not my night!

Don

Don, this reminds me of a few lines that you wrote in chapter 1 of BJA3. To quote:

"I win some back, but the final result of the trip (-32 units) has been sealed by the one hand."

"Don't shed any tears for me. I've got a little lead on them! I'm in my car by 10 and home at 1 a.m. It's been a 16-hour day. Some restful way to spend a Saturday!"

Those two above quotes can be an inspiration for everyone on this board, I know they are for me.

[Optimus Prime]

Can we go back to NMSE?

Seems that key to attacking these games is knowing how much EV is "left" in the shoe. If the TC is 0, we know that the shoe is +EV and at higher counts it has more value. In negative counts, the overall shoe can still be +EV, but there comes a point where, given the player's spread, the count, pen, and % of the shoe remaining, the remainder of the shoe is -EV and it's best to wong out, as the chance of the count going positive diminishes.

When is that point? I'm sure that simulation is the best way to figure it out, but is there a way to estimate it? The solution would be related to Don's work on optimal departure points, but this is a slightly different problem to solve and would be beneficial in MSE games as well as NMSE.

[AngryCounter]

Can we go back to NMSE?

Seems that key to attacking these games is knowing how much EV is "left" in the shoe. If the TC is 0, we know that the shoe is +EV and at higher counts it has more value. In negative counts, the overall shoe can still be +EV, but there comes a point where, given the player's spread, the count, pen, and % of the shoe remaining, the remainder of the shoe is -EV and it's best to wong out, as the chance of the count going positive diminishes.

When is that point? I'm sure that simulation is the best way to figure it out, but is there a way to estimate it? The solution would be related to Don's work on optimal departure points, but this is a slightly different problem to solve and would be beneficial in MSE games as well as NMSE.

I’m personally ok to play a TC-1 shoe 3 decks left... you never know if a round full of small cards will turn it into a monster shoe, however shoes that get TC-2 early in... I’d just move to a different table.