Losing Streak

[UncleChoo]

I'm assessing my play and in 43 hours I am around my ev that I ran in simulations. However, the last 22 hours I have lost money in a big swing while playing in good games with abnormally high tcs. I have played good games and do not think my play is any different or lacking. Is this normal in a losing streak? I would lose with a 19 in a tc 3 with dealer hitting twice, dealer hit 21 3 consecutive hands in a tc 4 (insurance was not offered), and losing consecutive hands when I had edge for just a few examples. I would switch from 1 hand to 2 hands when tc was 2 and stop if it fell below tc1. Any negative rc I played the minimum, even though my spread is based on green chips. Any advice or support would be appreciated! Thank you

Danny Ocean
[email protected]

Ignore it. I was at first getting excited after decent wins and getting flustered after booked losses. Then I realized it's a big waste of emotional energy. Look at the whole game as just temporary depositing money back and forth with the house, knowing over the long term you'll be skimming some betting units from these back and forth temporary deposits. This has been my new mental outlook, but I guess the real test comes when I experience a 60% drop in bankroll.

I also wanted to share the worse beatings I've taken were the rare times I had extreme TC's of say +15 or so at the end of the shoe. When this happens that big edge you see on paper in this scenario never materialized. This means all those 10's are behind the cut. Try to track that slug behind the cut during the shuffle procedure. Don't bet big when first practicing this. I've been trying hard to master this, but I've yet to hit that money slug when I thought I would. I really think this skill is what separates the big boy AP's versus juniors in training like myself.

I bet if you look back at your best sessions you'll notice it was when you were getting TC's fluctuating between +10 and +6 not +18 or whatever (An extremely high TC number for your count method might be different than mine, but you should get the basic idea). This has been my experience anyway.

[DannyOcean]

Ignore it. I was at first getting excited after decent wins and getting flustered after booked losses. Then I realized it's a big waste of emotional energy. Look at the whole game as just temporary depositing money back and forth with the house, knowing over the long term you'll be skimming some betting units from these back and forth temporary deposits. This has been my new mental outlook, but I guess the real test comes when I experience a 60% drop in bankroll.

I also wanted to share the worse beatings I've taken were the rare times I had extreme TC's of say +15 or so at the end of the shoe. When this happens that big edge you see on paper in this scenario never materialized. This means all those 10's are behind the cut. Try to track that slug behind the cut during the shuffle procedure. Don't bet big when first practicing this. I've been trying hard to master this, but I've yet to hit that money slug when I thought I would. I really think this skill is what separates the big boy AP's versus juniors in training like myself.

I bet if you look back at your best sessions you'll notice it was when you were getting TC's fluctuating between +10 and +6 not +18 or whatever (An extremely high TC number for your count method might be different than mine, but you should get the basic idea). This has been my experience anyway.

This is incredibly accurate with my experience. I do not understand what you mean by after the cut or what money slug means in relation to making money, but I will look into it. I would appreciate a point in the correct direction. My biggest sessions are when I lived in that +6 +10 range. My biggest losses were when I was max bet at that high +18 or whatever. I am a finance major and can't help but think law of diminishing return occurs at a high enough tc.

[refinery]

This is incredibly accurate with my experience. I do not understand what you mean by after the cut or what money slug means in relation to making money, but I will look into it. I would appreciate a point in the correct direction. My biggest sessions are when I lived in that +6 +10 range. My biggest losses were when I was max bet at that high +18 or whatever. I am a finance major and can't help but think law of diminishing return occurs at a high enough tc.

Once again, people are steering new players in directions that aren't appropriate for their experience and level of play.

Danny: 22 hours is fuck all. It's nothing. It's a rounding error. Go out and play. Don't even start thinking about more advanced methods until you're comfortable understanding that your 22 hours means absolutely zero.

Also, the last part: you're saying your biggest losses come at the highest counts? You don't say! Think about it, Mr. Finance.

EDIT 1:

For the sake of accuracy, there are true counts so high that there are diminishing returns, however the frequency of them and the fact they are so high makes it largely theoretical and meaningless.

EDIT 2: Norm or someone -- I thought I saw something on blackjackincolor.com that backed up my assertion in Edit #1, but I can't seem to come up with it. Can someone tell me if I'm correct or if I imagined this? The Win/Loss/Push data appears to indicate the win% always climbs, the lose% always drops, and the push% always rises as the TC increases.

[Freightman]

EDIT 1:

For the sake of accuracy, there are true counts so high that there are diminishing returns, however the frequency of them and the fact they are so high makes it largely theoretical and meaningless.
.

True, but a bit off topic, but worthwhile to say. The worst thing is finishing a shoe dealt 4.5/6 with RC 19 (halves) at cut card, roughly true 12.75. Most people will blow their brains out on this one.

In other words, if the count kept rising, there was never an advantage to be had.

[DSchles]

EDIT 2: Norm or someone -- I thought I saw something on blackjackincolor.com that backed up my assertion in Edit #1, but I can't seem to come up with it. Can someone tell me if I'm correct or if I imagined this? The Win/Loss/Push data appears to indicate the win% always climbs, the lose% always drops, and the push% always rises as the TC increases.

There is no tendency for edge to decrease as the count gets progressively higher. However, the steepness of the slope levels off somewhat due to marked increase in 20-20 pushes at extremely high counts.

The downside is different. Rules, number of indices used, etc., play a role, but, in general, to the downside, you reach a point (TC = -13?) where progressively lower counts do NOT impart lower player edges. But who cares? It's -13, for crying out loud!

Don

[refinery]

There is no tendency for edge to decrease as the count gets progressively higher. However, the steepness of the slope levels off somewhat due to marked increase in 20-20 pushes at extremely high counts.

The downside is different. Rules, number of indices used, etc., play a role, but, in general, to the downside, you reach a point (TC = -13?) where progressively lower counts do NOT impart lower player edges. But who cares? It's -13, for crying out loud!

Don

Always appreciate your responses, Don.

[DannyOcean]

Once again, people are steering new players in directions that aren't appropriate for their experience and level of play.

Danny: 22 hours is fuck all. It's nothing. It's a rounding error. Go out and play. Don't even start thinking about more advanced methods until you're comfortable understanding that your 22 hours means absolutely zero.

Also, the last part: you're saying your biggest losses come at the highest counts? You don't say! Think about it, Mr. Finance.

EDIT 1:

For the sake of accuracy, there are true counts so high that there are diminishing returns, however the frequency of them and the fact they are so high makes it largely theoretical and meaningless.

EDIT 2: Norm or someone -- I thought I saw something on blackjackincolor.com that backed up my assertion in Edit #1, but I can't seem to come up with it. Can someone tell me if I'm correct or if I imagined this? The Win/Loss/Push data appears to indicate the win% always climbs, the lose% always drops, and the push% always rises as the TC increases.

Refinery, I'm sorry if I offended you. I only said this because I appreciated his post. I am at 50 hours overall (I am aware this is still not enough, I'm only posting to try and learn quicker from more experienced players). I could explain how my sample does relate to finance, but I do not think you would be interested nor care for my opinion from your previous comments. I am very open if I play something wrong or misinterpret something. Obviously when watching professional athletics, every athlete is fundamentally an expert, but that does not stop people from appreciating the advanced skills they do.

[Freightman]

Refinery, I'm sorry if I offended you.
do.

Not possible.